Author: Greg Torode and Yimou Lee
HONG KONG/TAIPEI, Jan 9 (Reuters) – Some Chinese netizens have called for a Venezuelan-style lightning arrest of Taiwan’s leaders in preparation for a takeover, but analysts, academics and security officials say China’s modern military is far from ready.
They say the Chinese military has an adversary in Taiwan that, in addition to extensive air defense and radar capabilities and possible support from the United States and its allies, has been preparing for a “decapitation operation” against its leader for years.
Although China has spent years acquiring advanced weapons, questions remain about the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to use them effectively and the command structure that must hold them together in combat.
Chen Guanting, a lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic People’s Party, said, “Once such an operation gets into trouble, it will quickly escalate into a full-scale conflict, and the political and military risks are extremely high.”
He added that Taiwan’s layered air defense and early warning system meant that any air assault or special operations infiltration operation would run the risk of detection as it crossed the Taiwan Strait, signaling an escalation.
The United States demonstrated its military’s proven air superiority in an operation to rescue Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend.
Its military controls the skies with stealth fighter jets, jets that disrupt enemy defenses, and covert reconnaissance drones and satellites that provide commanders with real-time intelligence.
In contrast, the PLA “still has significant gaps in actual joint operations experience, electromagnetic and electronic warfare capabilities, and combat verification of high-risk missions,” Chen said.
China’s Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters.
China does not rule out occupying Taiwan by force
China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China’s claims.
“Operationally, while the PLA has recently attempted to accelerate force integration, these are still small steps compared to what the U.S. has accumulated over decades,” said Collin Koh, a security scholar in Singapore.
Last month, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te said the island was determined to defend its sovereignty and strengthen its defenses after Beijing fired rockets at the island as part of its latest military drills.
The drills around Taiwan are the most extensive yet and come with strong messages from Chinese officials and the military.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement: “Any external force that attempts to meddle in the Taiwan issue or interfere in China’s internal affairs will be slammed with its own blood against the iron wall of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.”
In October, Lai unveiled a multi-layered air defense system called “T-Dome.”
It is intended to be similar to Israel’s Iron Dome, with a more efficient “sensor-to-shooter” mechanism, integrating the Taiwan-developed Tiangong missile with weapons from the US-supplied HIMARS rocket system to achieve a higher kill rate.
In July, Taiwan’s military held a drill deploying portable Stinger rockets and tanks to protect Taipei’s main airport from enemy landings.
Maduro’s withdrawal cheers some
While military attachés say China has conducted military exercises in Taipei aimed at controlling Taiwan through a variety of military options, some Chinese netizens see the U.S. actions in Venezuela as inspiration.
“The situation in Venezuela provides us with a solution to unify Taiwan,” said one user on X-like microblogging site Weibo.
“First use special operations to arrest Lai Ching-te, then immediately declare takeover of Taiwan, issue new ID cards…and achieve a quick and decisive victory.”
Mr. Chen, who sits on Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, dismissed such remarks as “fantasy” and other analysts said any such attempt would soon be faced with stark military realities.
Koh said China has added aircraft to replicate platforms such as Boeing’s EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft and Northrop Grumman’s E-2D Advanced Hawkeye command and early warning aircraft, but their precise capabilities have yet to be determined.
Xu, of the S. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, added that because the ruling Communist Party still plays a role in the PLA’s command structure, doubts remain about its effectiveness.
“A decentralized command and control hierarchy is critical; this enables field commanders to take the necessary proactive actions to deal with the fluidity, constant change and uncertainty of military operations as events unfold,” Koh said.
Yet despite any perceived shortcomings of the PLA, Taiwan’s leaders are taking no chances.
A senior Taiwanese security official said, “We don’t have the capital to take it lightly.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the military issue.
“After all, after this painful and shocking experience, China will also look for various ways to overcome these problems.”
(Reporting by Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Yimou Lee in Taipei; Additional reporting by Laurie Chen, Tiffany Le and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
