An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts has revealed how accurate bets on a U.S. attack on Iran were, exposing a trend that experts fear poses a huge risk to U.S. national security.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman expressed deep concern about the national security implications of this new wave of so-called insider trading. He warned that if those looking at prediction markets can spot irregular trading, then so can enemies of the United States.
“The issue here is that they can plan their war accordingly,” Vaiman said. “Frankly, this could endanger a lot of lives.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily spot insider trading patterns and use the information to plan their own military strategies.
Accuracy cannot be explained by luck alone
The warning comes as he and his team discovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the numbers.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have surged, topping $1 billion this year alone. The ability to place bets on global conflicts has created a whole new category of insider trading.
On-chain data shows that several major, high-conviction bets were made in the days leading up to the February 28 surprise attack on Iran, which ousted its supreme leader and declared a ceasefire.
According to data from Bubblemaps, almost all of the nine accounts associated with Polymarket bet on US military operations, with more than $2.4 million in bets.
“They just didn’t bet in the days before the U.S. strike, but later in multiple sectors to maximize profits,” Vaiman said. They also placed smaller losing bets on February 20, possibly to avoid attracting attention.
98% winning rate is not to be missed
However, executing dozens of bets with a 98% win rate is hard to miss. “During the Iranian attack, civilians were reportedly inspecting the Polymarket to decide whether they should sleep in the bunker,” Waiman added. “So, yes, governments and potential enemies are probably watching this very closely.”
When asked if there was any indication that these insider traders had ties to the U.S. government, Wieman responded: “We have no evidence that these individuals are military insiders or even Americans.” He said, “This data is suspicious and may indicate that someone has an unfair information advantage.”
Rep. Mike Levin recently said on
An insider trading officer has been arrested. U.S. Army Green Beret Sergeant Major Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed a $400,000 bet at Polymarket on his involvement in a raid on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Later that month, a study found that only 3% of “informed” traders improved their accuracy, while 97% did not.
Bubblemaps first made their investigation public on May 18 via a series of X posts, in which they shared graphics and images as evidence confirming the statistically improbable accuracy of the timing of each bet.
The conclusion comes two weeks after Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainaanalysis to bring Wall Street-level regulation to its platform, a clear signal from the prediction markets provider that it is serious about cracking down on insider trading and market manipulation.
Possibility of manipulation
All of this raises other questions and concerns, such as the potential for prediction markets to be manipulated, Waiman said.
“Governments may deliberately place bets that create false signals and mislead adversaries into thinking something is about to happen,” he said. “Prediction markets are intelligence and information warfare tools.”
He also noted that prediction markets don’t just predict the future, “they can change the future.” He cited cases of journalists facing extortion threats from bookmakers trying to protect their finances.
Vaiman, on the other hand, defended Polymarket’s structural design and the transparency it provides, while refusing to blame the platform for compliance failures.
“I don’t want to dunk at Polymarket,” Vaiman said. “Literally anyone can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC account. This isn’t just a Polymarket problem. It’s an Internet-wide problem.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request for comment. However, the company has hit back at insider trading accusations in the past, saying it has strict insider trading rules, AI monitoring and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity and report it to the relevant authorities. “Insider trading is not welcome at Polymarket and those who attempt to engage in insider trading will be identified,” the platform said.
