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Ukraine expects Moscow to inflict at least 200 Russian casualties for every square kilometer it captures.
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They have achieved this goal in recent months as their forces have stymied advances on the Russian battlefield.
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Ukraine’s defense minister attributed this to its mid-range strikes and Russia’s loss of Starlink.
Ukraine’s goal is to inflict at least 200 Russian casualties for every square kilometer Moscow occupies on the battlefield. In recent months, the Russian military’s gains have become increasingly costly.
“The enemy will suffer disproportionately high losses for every kilometer advanced,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov recently told reporters at a meeting to discuss the results of combat operations so far this year.
In October 2025, 67 soldiers were killed or wounded for every square kilometer the Russian army advanced. The number increased to 165 in January, 244 in February, 254 in March and 179 in April, Fedorov said, adding that Moscow suffered 35,203 casualties in April alone.
“Our strategic goal is to cause at least 200 losses to the enemy for every square kilometer we advance,” he said. “Dynamics show that Ukraine has significantly slowed down the enemy’s advance and is gradually regaining the initiative. At the same time, we are increasing active actions to liberate territory.”
Fedorov attributed the rise in Russian casualties to several factors, including Elon Musk’s decision in February to disable the Russian military’s Starlink satellite internet service. The defense minister added that Moscow has been unable to replace this capability, allowing Ukraine to exploit battlefield situations.
Another factor is Ukraine’s push to build an arsenal of medium-range attack drones, which would operate at such a depth against Russian targets that their forces would be unable to conduct assault operations on the front lines.
“We have actively started purchasing medium-sized drones, which have become one of the key technological advantages of the front line,” Fedorov said.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare a drone to attack Russian positions.Diego Herrera Cacedo/Anadolu, Getty Images
Analysts at the Institute of War, a US think tank, assess that these developments have led to a steady decline in Russia’s advance on the battlefield since November 2025. They also pointed to Ukraine’s repeated ground counterattacks as a contributing factor.
ISW conflict analysts reported in early May that “Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory controlled in the Ukrainian theater in April 2026 for the first time” since Kiev invaded Russia’s Kursk region in 2024.
They said Russia lost control of 116 square kilometers in April, although that figure did not include areas where Russian troops briefly penetrated Ukrainian territory.
Russia has been unable to regain this peak since seizing nearly 27% of Ukraine just weeks after launching a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Four years later, in March 2026, that number had fallen below 20%, ISW data shows.
British senior military adviser Colonel Joby Rimmer said in late April that Russia had suffered cumulative losses on the battlefield of about 1.3 million people during this period.
By comparison, Ukraine suffered an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 casualties in the war, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank.
Ukrainian officials have said they intend to increasingly replace humans with robotic systems, including drones, as close as possible to the front lines, especially in logistical tasks.
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