Connecticut will face the possibility of heavy snow for the third weekend in a row, but a Nor’easter this weekend is far from guaranteed.
“All outcomes are still being discussed, ranging from an offshore dry pass with no impacts at all to a high-ceiling, slow-moving winter storm with a variety of impacts,” the National Weather Service’s Boston office said during forecast discussions Wednesday morning.
Here are some of the most likely scenarios based on the latest forecast model data.
Scenario 1: Another high-impact winter storm
Following last Sunday’s massive snowstorm, this Sunday’s early weather forecast brings back memories of shoveling snow that’s all too fresh. As New York Yankees legend Yogi Berra once said, “It’s all déjà vu all over again.”
We’re confident we’ll see a powerful storm system along the East Coast, but the question is, how close will it be to Connecticut and how much snow could we see?
In this case, the severe storm will move farther west, bringing heavy snow and gusty winds to Connecticut for much of Sunday. If (and it’s a big if) that happens, much of the state will see more than 6 inches of snow, with near-blizzard conditions at times.
The proximity of the storm’s low-pressure center to Connecticut will be a significant factor in Sunday’s snowfall amounts in the state. (weather clock)
Scenario 2: Xiangdong is missing
On Wednesday morning, some forecast models began moving east with the storm’s track, pushing the precipitation barrier farther offshore and keeping Connecticut dry through Sunday. Aside from a few snow showers, this will be a “best case scenario” for those who really don’t want to see more snow.
Several computer models pushed potential weekend storms farther east Wednesday morning, keeping Connecticut away from snow. (weather clock)
Scene 3: One blow
Like an argument between two people, the answer often lies in compromise. This situation is a mix of two extremes, bringing some snow to Connecticut while avoiding major damage like the last storm.
As of Wednesday morning, both major global forecast model ensembles were showing a “short hit” from the storm, bringing several inches of snow to parts of the state on Sunday.
Ensemble forecasts are an effective method for meteorologists to determine the probability of upcoming weather events. For example, GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) runs the GFS model 30 times in succession, adjusting the initial variables slightly each time. This variability helps account for bad data points or other random confusion, providing probability-based forecasts that are useful when there are multiple possibilities for a given storm.
Connecticut has a high chance of light to moderate snowfall. (weather clock)
bottom line
We know there will be a severe coastal storm nearby this coming weekend, but it’s too early to determine the specific impact on Connecticut.
Thursday could be the day that forecast models get a better idea of the storm. That’s not to say we’ll have the forecast “locked in” by then, but each day gives us a better understanding of how this complex system will evolve.
In other words, stay tuned and stay warm for now.
This article was originally published on Tracking Connecticut’s Nor’easter this weekend: A breakdown of the three most likely scenarios.
