President Donald Trump launched a campaign to politically punish Republicans in Indiana on Tuesday, with seven state senators facing Trump-backed primary challengers.
In neighboring Ohio, U.S. Senate and gubernatorial primaries will lock in candidates in two major races with national implications.
In Michigan, voters in bellwether districts will fill state Senate vacancies, a race that has implications for the balance of power in swing states.
Here’s what to pay attention to.
How strong is Trump’s hold on the Republican Party?
Trump is taking aim at seven Republican state senators in Indiana who oppose his plan to redraw congressional district boundaries to help the party gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Groups aligned with the president have spent millions on ads, pouring cash and attention into the often low-key campaign.
The races are a test of Trump’s lasting control over his party as Republicans grow increasingly anxious about November’s midterm elections.
The results will send a signal to Republicans around the world about how much it will cost voters to distance themselves from Trump as his approval ratings decline. It would show the president whether he can still credibly threaten consequences for Republicans who disobey him.
The state senators targeted by Trump all represent districts he won in 2024, most by 20 points or more.
The main races to watch are Zones 1, 11, 19, 21, 23, 38 and 41.
Ohio State game officially begins
The state’s primary election is the finale of this extravaganza. Even as Ohio becomes increasingly conservative, Democrats believe their path back to a majority in the U.S. Senate runs through the state.
They are pinning their hopes on former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost Ohio’s other Senate seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024.
He is expected to face off against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to fill the vacancy created when J.D. Vance became vice president.
The race is a special election to fill the final two years of Vance’s term.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy used his national profile, tech industry connections and alliance with Trump to raise record fundraising. He has largely ignored Republican rival Casey Putsch and focused rallies and television ads on the general election.
Pucci, an engineer and automotive designer who calls himself a “car guy,” has attracted fans with incendiary YouTube videos that attack Ramaswamy and criticize national Republicans for their handling of the Epstein files, their stance on energy-hungry data centers and their support for Israel.
Former Ohio public health director Amy Acton is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. She has played a key role in the state’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Will Democrats sweep the special election again?
The special election for a state Senate seat in mid-Michigan is extremely important.
It’s another test of enthusiasm for a series of special elections that have almost universally tilted toward Democrats since Trump returned to the White House. It could also affect the balance of power at the Michigan Capitol. A Democratic victory would give the party a supermajority in the state Senate, while a Republican victory would leave the House deadlocked, tied 19-19.
The location matches closely. Democrat Kamala Harris defeated Trump in the 2024 presidential election by less than 1 percentage point.
The seat has been vacant for more than a year, since Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet resigned to take the congressional seat.
Democrats have shown surprising strength in special elections and off-year races across the country, winning races in unexpected places and closing gaps significantly even as they trail.
There’s no guarantee the trend will continue into the midterm elections, when turnout will be much higher, but it still energizes Democrats and unnerves Republicans worried about maintaining their congressional majorities.
