The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war resulted in the suppression of global oil supplies. Two key alternatives remain, but any disruption to them could make moving oil out of the Arabian Peninsula “virtually impossible” amid concerns about Iran targeting the Gulf state’s energy infrastructure, one analyst said.
On a typical day, a large portion of the Arabian Peninsula’s oil exports rely on a handful of key routes and terminals, making the system highly vulnerable to disruption, said Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at energy consulting group Kpler.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that typically handles about 20% of global oil consumption. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day will pass through the pipeline in 2024. Nearly all shipping through the strait has been halted since Iran attacked several oil tankers after the war broke out in late February, disrupting global oil markets.
Reuters – Photo: Oil tankers sail in the bay near the Strait of Hormuz, seen from the border with the Musandam regime in Oman, north of Ras Al Khaimah, during the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, March 11, 2026 in the United Arab Emirates.
Kepler said the two most important alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the United Arab Emirates’ ADCOP pipeline, which supplies water to Fujairah’s export terminals.
Yanbu’s crude oil exports have historically averaged approximately 750,000 barrels per day. However, sales have surged in recent weeks, according to Kepler.
“Up to 2.5 million [barrels per day] So far this month, based on the ships going there, it should be up significantly,” Smith said.
Oil and gas prices soar as Iran steps up attacks on Gulf refineries
Meanwhile, the Fujairah terminal typically handles about 1 million barrels of crude oil exports per day through the ADCOP pipeline. Smith said the figure recently spiked to 2.25 million barrels per day before falling sharply following drone attacks in the region.
Smith said if both Yanbu and Fujairah were damaged, it would be “almost impossible” to move oil out of the Arabian Peninsula.
Map tiles by Matt Smith of Google Earth, GassBuddy, Kpler – Photo: Oil exports at risk if major Arabian Peninsula routes disrupted
There are only a few limited exceptions: Iran can still export crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz and its Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz; and northern Iraq can send oil via pipeline from Kirkuk to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, according to Kopler.
Oil experts convey a bottom line: There are no meaningful alternatives to these routes — there is no fair backup plan for the Strait of Hormuz; these alternatives are the limited options left.
If the US imports almost no oil from the Strait of Hormuz, why are your gas prices going up?
Smith said LNG faces greater vulnerability – there are “virtually no other” export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
One of the world’s largest LNG hubs is located in Qatar. Qatar Energy’s chief executive said on Thursday that the Ras Laffan plant was damaged in an attack by Iran this week, reducing Qatar’s liquefied natural gas export capacity by 17% and taking up to five years to repair.
Qatar’s foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it a “dangerous escalation.”
Ras Laffan was one of several energy assets identified this week by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as “legitimate” targets following an Israeli attack on Iran’s largest natural gas field.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards target list includes critical oil, refining and gas infrastructure in the region, including export routes that handle millions of barrels of oil per day.
ABC News’ Meredith Deliso contributed to this report.
