Despite Democrats’ long-standing entrenched dominance of California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans holding narrow leads in the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race as the June primary approaches.
The confusing results appear to be largely due to the state’s left-leaning voters feeling uninspired by any of the eight top Democratic candidates. With California occupying the top two spots in the primary, that apathy could lead to Democrats being shut out of the November election that would determine the next leader of the union’s largest state, although that is still considered unlikely.
Conservative commentator Steve Hilton has the support of 17% of likely voters, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco has 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government and co-sponsored by The Times.
They were followed by Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom received support from 13% of likely voters surveyed. With the exception of billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who has 10% support after spending tens of millions of dollars on his campaign, no other Democrat has support from more than 5% of likely voters, polls show.
Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said with less than 60 days until ballots start arriving in Californians’ mailboxes, he’s shocked by how divided voters are and how little they know about the candidates.
“That’s historic to me, especially given that none of the candidates had a really positive image among voters, it’s also shocking. I mean, maybe one of the reasons why voters aren’t engaged is they’re not enthusiastic about either candidate,” he said. “They’re kind of sleepwalking into this election.”
Swalwell and Porter both belong to the party’s progressive wing and have gained national prominence as regulars on cable news shows and as combative and sometimes dramatic committee members at congressional oversight hearings. That notoriety has fueled attacks from Republicans and the far right and boosted their popularity among the Democratic base — both crucial for voters looking for a strong candidate to challenge President Trump.
Her approval ratings recovered slightly after a dip in polls in the fall after videos emerged of Porter berating an aide and a reporter. She also has the highest approval rating of any candidate in the field, at 34%.
Steyer’s support among likely voters rose to 10 percent from 1 percent in a Berkeley poll in October, the survey showed. The momentum comes as Steyer has spent about $50 million on television ads since December, according to an analysis by Capitol Weekly data expert Paul Mitchell.
Other top Democrats in the race include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who has support from 5% of likely voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who have gained 4%; and former state Gov. Betty Yee and the state sheriff, who have gained 4%. Public Education Tony Thurmond 1%.
The poll found that 16% of likely voters were either undecided or supporting other, less well-known candidates.
Support for the Democrat hoping to become the state’s next governor also emerged elsewhere. On Monday, the powerful California Federation of Labor voted to endorse four candidates for governor — half of the Democratic field.
DiCamillo said he believes polls include the candidate titles voters will see on the ballot, which is critical in low-information races.
“This is really important in races where voters don’t have a lot of information, or they say they don’t know much about the candidates,” he said, adding that it would be particularly helpful for Riverside County Sheriff Bianco. “His position was impressive and voters thought, well, this is credible, so let me consider him.”
Amid concerns about two Republicans winning the top two spots in the June 2 primary, California Democratic Party Chairman Rusty Hicks urged low-poll candidates to consider their viability and drop out if they don’t see a path forward earlier this month.
Some candidates are furious, arguing that party leaders are effectively telling every candidate of color to drop out of the race. All but one of the top Democrats in the race quickly filed their campaign paperwork with the secretary of state’s office, meaning their names will appear on the ballot.
The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary are the only ones to advance to the November general election — regardless of party.
The odds of a Republican becoming California’s next governor appear slim. No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006, the year Hollywood movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected as governor. The state’s registered Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters nearly 2 to 1.
Compared to past gubernatorial races with well-known Democratic front-runners, neither party’s candidates are particularly popular with voters. A large number of voters have no opinion of either candidate, with about two-thirds of them expressing an opinion on Mahan, Yi and Thurmond.
Voters are more focused on what they believe are the most important issues that the state’s next governor needs to address.
The poll found that affordability dominates among all voters regardless of political ideology. Four in 10 voters said lowering the cost of living in California is one of the top priorities for the next governor, with a handful also emphasizing affordable housing and lowering gas prices and utility rates.
DiCamillo said affordability “is the top issue for voters in California and across the country. There’s no question about it.” “Maybe here in California there’s even more urgency, given that our cost of living is higher than most other places.”
Building new housing, loosening regulations to allow for rapid construction, lowering the cost of home ownership, discouraging private sector home buying, and lowering gas prices are all topics that candidates often talk about on the campaign trail and in debates.
The poll found clear divisions among voters when asked about reducing waste, fraud and political corruption in state government. Nearly 50% of Republicans say it is a top priority, compared with 10% of Democrats and just over a quarter of voters who have not indicated a party preference.
DiCamillo said that sentiment is consistent with President Trump’s message and the goals his administration is pursuing across the federal government. Trump has repeatedly painted California as a place rife with waste, fraud and abuse. On Monday, as he launched a fraud task force led by Vice President J.D. Vance, he pointed to California as one of the states with inadequate oversight of federal funds.
DiCamillo said Republican voters in California share similar sentiments.
In Washington, D.C., “they’re cutting spending, trying to make government smaller and … also reduce waste,” he said. California “Republicans, given that Democrats have been in control of things for so long, they think…California needs to do more now as well.”
The Berkeley IGS/Times Poll conducted an online survey of 5,019 California registered voters in English and Spanish from March 9-14. The estimates have a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points in either direction in the overall sample, with larger numbers for subgroups.
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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
