Here we are in December. Most leagues are still a week away from the fantasy football playoffs. Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming playoff schedule. We’ll attack the past schedule here; earlier this week, we ran through the running back schemas.
I publish this article every year and it always requires a disclaimer. Here’s a look at the playoff schedule (Weeks 15, 16 and 17) ranked from easiest to hardest. Rankings are cumulative in nature, a mix of data (weighted by recent results), observations and special sauce. The rankings do not take into account home and away venues, potential weather or unusual team motivations (such as resting starters if the team does not need to play). If you don’t need Week 15, the rankings will need to be adjusted on your own — if you end up getting a bye, the first slate becomes meaningless.
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Of course, the best game of Week 17 is worthless if you don’t make the finals.
Also, keep in mind that I’m only ranking schedules here, not players. I’m certainly not going to tell you to play Geno Smith instead of Drake Maye because of the schedule. This exercise is a great way to break the ice and is something to consider as you explore yourself in the lead-up to Money Week.
I’m going to break down passing schedule strength into two categories – one for both quarterbacks and receivers, and one specifically for tight ends.
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Quarterback/Wide Receiver Schedule Strength
favorable slate
vikings: @Cowboys, @Giants, Lions
commander:@Giants, Eagles, Cowboys
dolphin: @Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers
49ers: Titans, @Colts, Bears
Strategy: @Eagles, @Texans, Giants
charger: @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans
falcon: @Buccaneers, @Cardinals, Rams
giants: Commander, Vikings, @Raiders
It’s frustrating to see so much of the year-end schedule tied up with mediocre quarterbacks. JJ McCarthy needs at least one breakout game before I reopen his file, Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins are on their last legs, and even Justin Herbert is dealing with a broken non-throwing hand and an injured offensive line. …I don’t expect a good timetable to save Tua Tagovailoa either. Keep in mind that Miami is playing at the slowest pace in the league and the Dolphins are exceeding expectations with a negative passer rating. …Marcus Mariota has been outstanding for three straight weeks (QB13, QB9, QB3) and Jayden Daniels could be back soon. Add in Terry McLaurin, and there’s finally some optimism in Washington.
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medium slate
rams:Lions, @Seahawks, @Falcons
cardinals: @Texans, Falcons, @Bengals
colts: @Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars
browns: @Bears, Bills, Steelers
steelers: Dolphins, @Lions, @Browns
pirate: Falcons, @Panthers, @Dolphins
eagles: Raiders, @Commanders, @Bills
saint: Panthers, Jets, @Titans
packers: @Broncos, @Bears, Ravens
Lions Club: @Rams, Steelers, @Vikings
Ravens: @Bengals, Patriots, @Packers
cowboys: Vikings, Chargers, @Commanders
titan: @49ers, Chiefs, Saints
Broncos: Packers, Jaguars, @Chiefs
panthers:@Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks
seahawks: Colts, Rams, @Panthers
bengal tiger: Ravens, @Dolphins, Cardinals
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The Cardinals dropped out of first place in the group due to a daunting matchup in Houston, although the passing volume of this offense gives them a chance against any team. …Baker Mayfield was an early MVP contender before suffering a mid-season slump, mostly related to injuries to his offense. Tampa Bay’s skill talent is healing at just the right time. … The Saints’ passer rating exceeded expectations and was close to neutral, but Kellen Moore had New Orleans playing at the fastest pace in the league. This is not a punch-bag team and the goal spread throughout the season has been narrow. Keep an open mind here.
running challenge
Bear: Browns, Packers, @49ers
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jaguars: Jets, @Broncos, @Colts
bill: @Patriots, @Browns, Eagles
jet plane: @Jaguars, @Saints,Patriots
chiefs: Chargers, @Titans, Broncos
texas: Cardinals, Raiders, @Chargers
patriots: Bill, @Ravens, @Jets
If Derek Meyer is a lock for MVP, he’s already won the award. Weather could also be a factor in the Patriots’ three fantasy playoff games. … You should probably ignore Kansas City’s rankings and keep rolling with Patrick Mahomes and Rashe Rice, as the Chiefs ranked third in passing percentage and exceeded expectations. If the Chiefs can get out of this season, it will fall on Mahomes’ arms. … Josh Allen’s career was on a steep upward trend in December, and that trend may continue given the receivers he relies on. They don’t call him the “Winter Soldier” for nothing.
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schedule tightness intensity
favorable slate
dolphin: @Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers
Ravens: @Bengals, Patriots, @Packers
cardinals: @Texans, Falcons, @Bengals
colts: @Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars
49ers: Titans, @Colts, Bears
jaguars: Jets, @Broncos, @Colts
The Bengals have been helpless at tight end all year, and the Jaguars and Colts have struggled in that area of late, so those three teams are driving the results here. Go see if Darren Waller can be on your waiver wire and don’t be afraid of Brenton Strange (also note that it’s easier to beat the Broncos on the seam than it is on the outside).
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medium slate
cowboys: Vikings, Chargers, @Commanders
seahawks: Colts, Rams, @Panthers
steelers: Dolphins, @Lions, @Browns
Broncos: Packers, Jaguars, @Chiefs
chiefs: Chargers, @Titans, Broncos
packers: @Broncos, @Bears, Ravens
jet plane: @Jaguars, @Saints,Patriots
Lions Club: @Rams, Steelers, @Vikings
bengal tiger: Ravens, @Dolphins, Cardinals
titan: @49ers, Chiefs, Saints
giants: Commander, Vikings, @Raiders
Bear: Browns, Packers, @49ers
pirate: Falcons, @Panthers, @Dolphins
charger: @Chiefs, @Cowboys, Texans
falcon: @Buccaneers, @Cardinals, Rams
vikings: @Cowboys, @Giants, Lions
texas: Cardinals, Raiders, @Chargers
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This is a big middle group, and honestly, most of the players here, just trust your offensive notes and scouting. The goal of defensive matchups is to identify and react to outliers, rather than focusing too much on layering down the middle.
running challenge
panthers:@Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks
commander:@Giants, Eagles, Cowboys
rams:Lions, @Seahawks, @Falcons
bill: @Patriots, @Browns, Eagles
saint: Panthers, Jets, @Titans
browns: @Bears, Bills, Steelers
Strategy: @Eagles, @Texans, Giants
eagles: Raiders, @Commanders, @Bills
patriots: Bill, @Ravens, @Jets
The Bills and Eagles have been wiping out TE defenses, so we’ll try to avoid them as much as possible. …Dallas Goedert has been a TE19 or worse in four games since Philadelphia’s bye week. This is a far cry from the player he was in the first half of the year.