Women’s basketball bubble watch: Do Villanova, Syracuse, Colorado have tournament resumes?

Editor’s note: This article is part of a Bracket Central series that provides an in-depth look at the lead-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments, as well as analysis and draft picks during the tournament.

On Monday, Iowa State exited the bubble and fully entered the fray. This week, the Cyclones find themselves right back where they started after losing to BYU 83-69 on Tuesday night. That’s how fast things change.

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This week’s 16 teams (last 4 byes, last 4 in, top 4 out, last 4 out) include representatives from the Big East, ACC, A-10, Big 12, Summit League and MAAC.

Here’s who’s in and who’s out (for now):

Villanova

In bracket theory, big wins are the flashiest resume builders, but equally important (albeit less exciting) is beating the team you’re supposed to beat. This is a key element of Villanova’s resume. The Wildcats are 13-0 in four games and 4-1 in four games. It wasn’t enough to earn a bid, but it was a good start — though Villanova could have done that if it hadn’t lost to St. John’s in the quarterfinals. The Wildcats also defeated West Virginia in Four Game 1 and James Madison in Four Game 2. All of that adds up to a bid and a bye (meaning they avoid the first four games), at least for now. Villanova is almost certain to lose to UConn on Feb. 18, which won’t hurt the team’s resume, but a loss to any other team on the schedule will.

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Syracuse

One way to get out of the bubble and into the battlefield is by defeating other bubble squads. Head-to-head games are a way for the committee to decide between two teams with similar resumes. Because of this, Syracuse has an advantage over fellow bubble teams Utah, Virginia, California and Stanford. The Orange also beat Miami, a team not in our top 16. Syracuse also has three recovery-boosting games on its schedule: Clemson, N.C. State and Notre Dame. Wins over Clemson and Notre Dame would further cement the Orange’s status as a bye team, while a win over NC State would put them off the bubble entirely.

richmond

Bubbles are volatile; Richmond is proof of that. The Spiders were among the “top four out” teams last week, but this week they’ve moved past the “bottom four” to earn themselves a bye. As we’ve discussed before, the A-10 is a strong conference, but mid-level teams need to strive for perfection to find their place in March Madness. That’s why Richmond’s 71-57 victory over George Mason University on Saturday, which moved the Spiders into second place in the A-10 Division, was so significant. A loss would put them further on the wrong side of the bubble, but a win gives their resume a boost.