Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have said they will not release billions of dollars in reconstruction aid until Hamas disarms and implements enforceable security guarantees.
On Monday morning, the metal gates at the Rafah border crossing were opened for the first time in nearly two years. But only five patients and their companions, along with a dozen others who made it through the first day, made it clear how far the Gaza ceasefire is from fulfilling its promise.
Families spent the night in the cold outside the border crossing, waiting for hours-long biometric security checks by Israel and Egypt.
Ambulances line up on both sides of the border to carry critical medical cases through checkpoints, with EU monitors overseeing the process. On the Egyptian side, the aid staging area was deserted. Humanitarian workers described confusion about coordination and next steps.
Slow processing and strict security protocols reflect broader tensions. But the real battle is not over border crossings. It’s about weapons.
President Donald Trump insists Hamas will disarm “because they have no choice.” His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said the group “will give up their AK-47s.” Senior Hamas officials said the conversation never took place.
Palestinians look for casualties as they inspect the scene of an Israeli attack on a Hamas police station in Gaza City on Saturday, January 31, 2026. (Image source: REUTERS/DAWOUD ABU ALKAS)
“Our priority has always been to stop the war and protect civilians, not to negotiate the surrender of weapons,” senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera last week. He said U.S. proposals ranging from a weapons freeze to total disarmament had been discussed in theory but had never been part of formal negotiations.
This disconnect now hangs over everything labeled “Phase 2”: reconstruction, governance and long-term security. The second phase virtually came into focus last week with the return of the remains of the last Israeli hostage. However, what happens next remains unclear.
There is no mechanism to impose military sanctions
No international forces have been deployed to Gaza to collect or inspect weapons. There is no mechanism to impose military disarmament. More than two dozen countries participated in coordination meetings on Gaza’s future. No one sent troops.
“Phase 2 has been announced but has not actually begun because Hamas has rejected several core elements and no one has forced it to comply,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies who has coordinated the U.N. Security Council’s monitoring group for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, told the outlet. “This announcement is premature. It reflects diplomatic optimism rather than actual reality.”
“Israel cannot demilitarize Hamas alone, especially in areas where Israeli forces no longer exist,” Fitton-Brown said. “Imposed disarmament requires a transitional authority supported by international stabilization forces.”
“Without a monopoly of coercive means, there is no government,” Fitton-Brown said. “If Hamas retains weapons and organized armed forces, then it retains power regardless of what administrative structure exists on paper.”
Facts have proved that it is impossible to get countries to use force. Egypt has ruled out deploying troops inside Gaza. European countries will support governance structures but will not provide fighting forces. Türkiye supports Hamas politically. Gulf states, which are likely to finance reconstruction, will not send troops.
“A lot of countries want their flags to be there, but they don’t want their soldiers to be at risk,” Fitton-Brown said. “It defeats the purpose.”
Israel will not compromise on demilitarization. “The Israeli government has made it clear that it will not compromise on the demilitarization of Hamas,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and founder of Inside the Middle East, told the outlet. “This is not just the position of the current government. Any Israeli government would demand the dismantling of Hamas’s military capabilities.”
Melamed, meanwhile, said Israel does not expect Hamas to voluntarily disarm. “No one has any illusions that Hamas will disarm itself,” he said. “Demilitarization is not about eliminating all weapons. It is mainly offensive weapons – rockets and advanced weapons that can be used to attack Israeli territory. Israel’s top priority is to eliminate Hamas’s ability to make rockets and dismantle its command structure.”
But even this limited definition creates practical dilemmas. To achieve this, Israel would need to resume military operations that would undermine the ceasefire, or deploy external forces willing to directly confront Hamas. Neither scenario currently exists, and the ceasefire is likely to collapse unless Israel resumes military action.
Hamas is eager to integrate its roughly 10,000-strong police force into the new governance structure. Hamas is urging its civilian and security personnel to cooperate with the U.S.-backed Gaza National Governing Council while it seeks to formally establish its police force, according to multiple sources. Israel rejected the offer. Israeli officials believe the force is inseparable from Hamas’s broader security apparatus.
An internal Hamas document obtained by Israeli broadcaster Kan reveals the group’s strategy of appearing cooperative while maintaining control. The directive tells managers to maintain normal work practices while banning them from attacking members of the new technocratic government on social media. The key directive is: “No personal contact may be made, or information and news passed on to them, except through the relevant agencies.” Hamas itself retains control of all communication channels.
An Israeli military intelligence assessment submitted to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Hamas continued to deepen its governance structure and took concrete steps to maintain influence by integrating members into government ministries and security agencies, said Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“Hamas does not want to publicly reject the peace plan because doing so would provoke a decisive response from Washington or even Israel,” Fitton-Brown said. “Instead, Hamas signals conditional cooperation while avoiding true compliance.”
Hamas’s message is deliberately contradictory. Some have publicly stated that they will never disarm. Others suggested that weapons could be stockpiled and frozen rather than surrendered. This reflects a tactical debate within Hamas rather than a genuine desire to disarm.
Hamas officials blame ongoing Israeli military operations for hampering the functioning of the Committee of Technical Experts and argue that the organization’s top priority is to enable the Independent State Council to assume its responsibilities in Gaza.
Israeli officials believe this confirms Hamas plans to maintain an organized armed force under the new administrative label.
Assessing Hamas’ remaining capabilities is difficult. Before October 2023, Israeli and U.S. officials estimated that Hamas had between 15,000 and 30,000 rockets, as well as a large stockpile of small arms, anti-tank weapons, drones and an extensive tunnel network. Israeli officials now say much of that capability has been destroyed or reduced, but acknowledge that Hamas retains residual weapons, extensive underground infrastructure and organized armed groups capable of conducting limited attacks.
Adel Ghor, a Palestinian political analyst and director of the Paris Center for Security Studies and International Relations, told the media: “In the current context, rapid or forced disarmament is unrealistic and requires coordination with Hamas and a gradual process.”
“The most widely discussed approach internationally is not disarmament by force but the gradual containment and elimination of weapons through stronger Palestinian security institutions, improved economic conditions and incentives for stability rather than chaos.”
The reopening of border crossings has allowed us to see limited progress. Young men and older Palestinians waiting in line expressed relief but also frustration. It would be nice to see any progress after almost two years. Angry that traffic is still minimal.
Meanwhile, on-the-ground recovery efforts are progressing gradually. Since the ceasefire began in October, the United Nations Development Program has cleared about 50,000 tons of rubble, including at a new crushing facility in Khan Younis that processes about 1,000 tons of rubble per day. But the United Nations estimates that there are more than 40 million tons of debris in Gaza, which will take years to clear.
Wider reconstruction efforts remain stalled. Postwar reconstruction proposals pushed by Jared Kushner and unveiled in Davos last month envision up to 100,000 housing units in a redeveloped “New Rafah”, along with schools, hospitals and commercial areas. The plan explicitly conditions large-scale construction on Hamas’s verification of disarmament.
The United States has yet to commit to funding large-scale reconstruction. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have said they will not release billions of dollars in reconstruction aid until Hamas disarms and implements enforceable security guarantees. Requirements that have not been clearly defined or implemented.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. Health officials say more than 500 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began last October. Israel said the attacks targeted Hamas military personnel and weapons infrastructure.
Discussions about the deployment of international forces continue but are still at a preliminary stage. No country has made specific commitments to increase troops. A committee of technical experts to govern Gaza has been announced but has yet to begin functioning in any meaningful way.
“Hamas still maintains social and organizational influence on the ground, even as its military role has declined,” Gul said. “Any new government must rely on indirect coordination or avoid direct confrontation.”
