Northwestern squandered its first Big Ten Conference best chance at Rutgers on Sunday, taking the lead again in the final seconds and losing in overtime. Now, the challenge becomes even more difficult as the No. 13 Illinois Fighting Illini come to Evanston and come into the week with a 2-0 record. Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country and has a backfield that has proven it’s capable of closing games.
Things were not going well for the ‘Cats heading into Wednesday night, but with clean execution, completed defensive possessions and a composed offense late in the game, Northwestern had a real chance to shock the league with its fourth straight victory over the Illini at Wales Ryan Arena.
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Managing second chance damage
That’s probably a big deal considering how poorly Northwestern has rebounded in four conference games, but it’s crucial against a big team in Illinois. According to KenPom, the Illini’s average height is 79.5 inches (about 6 feet, 8 inches), ranking first in the country. Led by forward David Mirkovic and 7-foot Croatian twins Zvonimir Ivesic and Tomislav Ivesic, Illinois ranks 14th nationally in rebounds at 42.3 per game. The average points allowed per game is only 31.1, ranking 35th overall. This rebounding ability is particularly evident on the offensive end, with the team’s second chance creation rate at 39.1%, ranking 12th in the country.
Since Illinois is so good at rebounding, winning on the glass may be impossible, but managing them so they don’t lose you the game could be a step in the right direction. That means everyone has to rush the glass: constant outings from Arlington Page and Nick Martinelli, cleanup duties from guards and wings, and smarter floor balance to limit big men tipping in or driving to shooters. Cutting back on those extra chances might be enough to keep Illinois from losing games.
Winning with ball sports
Don’t expect Northwest to reach the finish line tomorrow. Through 16 games, Illinois ranks first in the nation in keeping opponents away from the charity stripe, with an FTA/FGA average of 19.4. Opponent effective field goal percentage also ranks in the top 25.
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The counterattack wasn’t the heroic shot Martinelli has been forced to play in the last few games; It’s a fast-paced and shared-the-ball approach. Let Jayden Reid set the stage on offense, feed Martinelli the ball early in the possession and keep the Illini defense moving with second-side action until a clean sheet is established.
It’s a direct reflection of NU’s identity, which boasts the nation’s best turnover rate and a top-10 assist rate. Since Northwestern’s 3-point shooting percentage varies from game to game, the difference will come from time of possession and field goal percentage, not shot volume.
Solve late-game problems
Northwestern’s biggest rival isn’t any of its Big Ten peers; it’s the final minutes of the game. The last game against Rutgers was a prime example: The Cats let a one-point lead slip away after an unforced error, multiple missed outs and four missed free throws in the final 1:38 of overtime.
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Illinois has proven to be an ill-suited team to provide those opportunities. In their final game in Iowa City, the Illini played a tight contest against the then-No. 19 Hawkeyes, 75-69. Behind the play of Kellan Boswell and first-year player Keaton Wagler, the team executed a half-court offense and made free throws down the stretch.
Northwestern’s strategy at the end of the game has to tighten up, but not go crazy. Possession of the ball means more in crunch time, which makes it crucial to get into the game early and avoid turnovers. Late looks should be calculated rather than improvised, and trusting proven playmakers like Martinelli and Reid will help limit indecision in situations like this.
In theory, the nerves from the home crowd behind the Wildcats should be lessened some, but composure will have to be maintained at the charity stripe to avoid another Rutgers situation. The late-game turnover was troubling, but there’s still a lot of time left in the season. If Northwestern turns those mistakes into lessons Wednesday, the ‘Cats can carve out a path to their first Big Ten victory.
