DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) — After nearly four years of war, spent shuttling between dank basements and muddy bomb shelters to fend off relentless Russian attacks, exhausted Ukrainian soldiers say they are motivated by the knowledge that they are fighting for a higher purpose: defending their homeland.
But as negotiators try to hammer out a peace deal, the military also believes that no matter what deal is reached, Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine — either now or by sending in new troops in a few years.
They also say Kiev must maintain a sizable army to protect its current 800-mile (nearly 1,300-kilometer) frontline.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are now the main obstacle to peaceful civilian life between Ukrainians and our bad neighbors,” a 40-year-old gunner told The Associated Press near the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. Under military protocol, he identified himself only by his call sign “Celtic” on the condition that his exact location not be revealed.
Soldiers have strong doubts that Moscow will abide by any peace agreement. Without substantial security guarantees, such as Ukraine joining NATO, they and military analysts believe that a new Russian invasion with new troops and equipment is inevitable.
Anticipating future Russian threats
As he dodges buzzing enemy drones in a dark, mud-walled trench, Kelt worries that any peace may not last long.
“This truce will be short-term, to restore the Russian military – about three to five years – and then they will come back,” the former furniture salesman from Kiev said as the rumble of artillery echoed around him.
Sergey Filimonov, commander of the DaVinci Wolf Battalion, is concerned that a deal will provide Russia with everything it needs to attack again.
“I think it would be a good thing for the Russians – to end the war, lift sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again,” he said. “I don’t believe peace can be achieved until Russia is destroyed, or at least until there is a change in leadership.”
Ukraine has a surplus of manpower
Filimonov described how Russian troops briefly entered the eastern town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region, but were driven out. His brigade successfully held the line but was often thwarted by neighboring units of inexperienced recruits.
The Kremlin boasted on Monday that Russian troops had captured the city after more than a year of fighting, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in Paris that the fighting was continuing.
US military analyst and scholar Rob Lee said a major breakthrough for the Russian military would depend on Ukraine’s ability to increase and maintain the number of its troops.
“Ukraine lacks manpower, lacks reserves,” he said. “As long as one Ukrainian brigade really fights, Russia can move forward.”
Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military expert and fundraiser, told public broadcaster Suspilne on Friday that many battalions on the front lines had only 20 fighters instead of the usual 400 to 800.
Although Ukraine may mobilize up to 30,000 new troops each month, many of them find their way out of service or prove unfit to replace frontline troops.
Key locations are still occupied
Still, Yuri Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles Drone Brigade operating in the region, said Ukrainian forces were trying to hold positions in Pokrovsk and in places like Kupinsk and Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region — two locations along the front line that Russia has been trying to capture for more than a year.
Russia has sent tens of thousands of troops to the towns, he said, noting that Russia’s failure to capture them “proves the high motivation and resilience of the Ukrainian military.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that the fighting would not stop unless Ukraine withdraws its troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, four provinces illegally annexed by Moscow in September 2022. Russian troops occupy only half of Zaporozhye and Kherson, and two-thirds of Donetsk.
The U.S.-Russia draft peace plan stipulates that Ukrainian troops will be restricted and Kiev troops must effectively withdraw from other areas of the Donetsk region. Zelensky has since said that subsequent revisions may be “feasible,” but it is unclear what will be included in the final document.
Li, who frequently inspects the front lines, said Russia’s advance in 2025 is faster than the previous year, but Moscow cannot guarantee that it will capture the remaining one-third of the Donetsk region in 2026.
“No matter where Russia advances, Ukraine will prioritize defenses that can defend it for the long term, but (then) Russia will advance in other directions,” Lee said, describing Moscow’s progress in Donetsk by advancing in multiple directions simultaneously.
Ukraine still needs Western aid
From the muddy trenches, Kelt scoffed at proposals to reduce the size of Ukraine’s military, saying it amounted to making it easier for Russia to “kill you” “later rather than now.”
But without continued support from the West, maintaining Ukraine’s current army of just over 1 million is almost impossible. Since the war broke out in 2022, Ukraine has spent almost all tax revenue on food, clothing, housing and arming its troops. The rest of its spending – health care, social programs, education, pensions and energy – is funded by Western grants and loans.
Glib Buryak, an associate professor of economics at Concordia University in Ukraine, said that as part of the Ukrainian financing plan, the EU allocated $50 billion between 2024 and 2027, but Kyiv will need $83.4 billion for the military and $52 billion for remaining state spending in 2026 and 2027.
Buryak said Ukraine’s future finances – including its ability to maintain its military – depended on elements of the peace plan regarding Russia’s frozen assets, noting that aid could be reduced if the war ends.
“How they are managed will determine Ukraine’s financial situation in the coming years,” he said.
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Yehor Konovalov contributed reporting.
