Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smith looks back at eight storylines that will define the week. In 14 weeks, how will fantasy football trends define the first round of the fantasy playoffs?
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Tua in the cold
In Weeks 16 and 17, Tua Tagovailoa will be back home in sunny Miami, comfortable and happy. By week 15, however, he was no longer enthusiastic. As of Thursday, when Pittsburgh hosts Hawaii on Monday Night Football, temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees. This will be the coldest game of Tagovailoa’s career. Tagovailoa has allowed 10 or fewer points in five of his nine games in games below 50 degrees, but won only two of them.
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The more important factor is how it affects Jaylen Waddle. Pittsburgh ranks 26th against WRs, but so far they’re better than average. Tagovailoa has thrown just 11 touchdown passes in those nine games, so Waddle’s performance in fantasy is shocking. In 4 of his 6 active games, Waddle scored 18+ PPR points, largely due to him breaking down some infamous big plays. While the Steelers have struggled against the passing game this season, surprisingly they rank first in the league in explosive passes allowed. This puts Miami’s star WR in an interesting position, with a lower floor but still retaining his ceiling potential. Since Tyreek Hill’s injury, Waddle’s production has typically been 18+ or under 10 points, and rarely anything in between.
Lamar Jackson vs. Cincy again
On paper, the Bengals are the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson scored 7.5 fantasy points against them in Week 13. Continuing three straight games with less than 10 fantasy points in the 2024 QB1 class is a nightmare. We finally bounced back last week with a 20-plus point win against the Steelers, but can Jackson be trusted in the first round of the fantasy playoffs?
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First of all, 7.5 is a bit of a lie. In a multiverse where Isaiah probably won’t fumble at the one-inch yard line, Zay Flowers won’t be called for pass interference on a phantom offense, Jackson’s day looks to be much better. Those two games would give Jackson 13 more points on the day, topping the 20-point mark. Sometimes luck is not on your side. More often than not, luck is on the side of the Bengals defense. Cincinnati ranks last in passing fantasy PPG after knocking off the Ravens in Week 13. Even after the poor performance, Jackson averaged 23.7 points per game against Cincinnati in his career. With the Bengals defense struggling especially with tight ends and the Ravens passing attack being strong, I would be surprised if we see a repeat performance from Baltimore in this must-win game.
Backup Quarterback vs. Top Defense
The D/STs who make the best plays in fantasy football are usually not the most talented, but the ones who play the least talented at the quarterback position. Thankfully, there are plenty of games to choose from in Week 15. Two of those games feature it: Seattle (No. 1 by PPG) against the Colts’ third- or fourth-string quarterbacks, Houston (No. 2 by PPG) against enough of Jacoby Brissett and my top giver, the Jaguars’ defense, at home against the Jets’ offense.
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It doesn’t hurt to have nature on your side. Chicago will host Shaddell Sanders in potentially negative temperatures, the Steelers will host Miami, Philadelphia will host the Raiders and Geno Smith, and finally, Kansas City will take on the Chargers’ struggling offensive line. That last group might not be the most elite of the elite defensive groups, but it’s going to be against a favorable quarterback. Dallas plays JJ McCarthy, Tampa Bay plays Kirk Cousins, and the 49ers play rookie Cam Ward on Thursday night, with most of those games needing to be given up. Happy live streaming!
Philip Rivers returns
My friend sent this message in a group chat. My first thought wasn’t “Wow, 44-year-old Philip Rivers is back” but “My friend got scammed by a fake Twitter account.” I still can’t believe it’s true, but Grandpa might be on Sunday against the Seahawks defense. The good news is the Colts offense is incredible outside of the quarterback position. After Daniel Jones was injured last week, third-string rookie Riley Leonard was still able to lead the Colts in the red zone with four drives. I hope Leonard leads the way this weekend, but if not, how does that impact Jonathan Taylor?
Seattle’s defense is averaging an incredible 8.7 rushing fantasy PPG to RBs this season. 75% of Taylor’s points this season have come on the ground as the star RB has played as high as the offense can handle (and so far it’s worked out great). As a two-touchdown underdog on the road, the Colts were projected to score just over 14 points. The ceiling was always high for Taylor, but the floor was horribly low for a typically top-three RB.
Goff vs Stafford revenge game
Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff trade: A rare win-win. They will face off again on Sunday in what could be a fantasy gold mine. The QB revenge game has a projected total of 54.5 points. Stafford appears to be the easiest of the two to start. The current fantasy QB5 faces a Lions defense that has been decimated by injuries and has seen its biggest drop in production in the second half of the year. They ranked 27th in fantasy passes allowed by PPG but lost key players like safety Brian Branch. The Jared Goff matchup wasn’t as bad as most expected. The Rams’ pass defense also declined in the second half, falling to 17th in fantasy points.
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There are two main benefits Both There will be. First, play indoors. While the temperatures are below freezing in Chicago, these two pocket passers will be competing indoors in Los Angeles (at the midway point). There are huge benefits to this time of year. The second interesting thing is each other. In elite offenses, sometimes quarterbacks are too dominant for their own good. There were plenty of games where the Lions and Rams would run big plays and get rid of the pass. With both possessing top-tier offensive abilities, we could see the quarterback throwing a lot of volume throughout the game. Goff is a great, super-flexible quarterback who deserves consideration to join Stafford as a starter in 1QB leagues.
Chargers running back combo vs. Kansas City
When Omarion Hampton took the field last week, he sat out for no apparent reason. The rookie only played 22 games since his return, but he got 15 healthy touches, something only 21 other RBs could do, including Kimani Vidal. Both RBs were credited with catches against the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but the problem is the catch volume just wasn’t there. The Chargers rank 31st in RB target share since Week 6, a trend very similar to Harbaugh’s offense.
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The Chargers backs may need catches like this to perform up to par against Kansas City. Usually, being at a disadvantage on the road and having a split backcourt isn’t an ideal combination. If the receivers don’t get hits, it becomes more difficult to rely on low rushing volume behind this offensive line. Hampton is an extremely talented player, but so are many other struggling backs. I expect it to be a pure 50/50 split now, which hurts the Hamptons floor tremendously. Kansas City ranks third in fantasy PPG rushing to RB when adjusted for schedule, which makes it hard to believe the Los Angeles RB is more than a flex prayer.
Devin Neal vs. Carolina
Over the past two weeks, Devin Neal has slowly emerged as a viable fantasy option. Last season, several backup running backs saved the team in the fantasy playoffs, such as Taj Spears and Amir Abdullah. Neil at least has the volume for the next one. The Saints rookie ranks in the top 10 on the team in possession percentage and has run the most routes as a starter. If he touches the ball 17 or more times for the third straight game, he’ll have a chance to put up big numbers against Carolina.
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The Panthers’ run defense has fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, only the Jets and Giants have allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing offenses. In the Saints’ Week 10 game against Carolina, Alvin Kamara touched the ball 25 times for 115 yards, his second-highest total of the 2025 season. Neal is my current RB22 and is worth the FLEX spot for most people.
Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington
Wan’Dale Robinson has been one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the season, sitting in as WR19 on PPG in PPR leagues. Only six players have scored more goals than Robinson this season, and Robinson has scored more than eight goals in five consecutive games. The volume was loud, but the competition couldn’t have been better. Washington ranked 32nd in EPA per dropback in the second half of the year with both of its top corners missing for the season. The only thing stopping opposing fantasy players is having commanders blown up. Thankfully, the Giants defense wasn’t much better. New York leads by just 2.5 points at home and hopes Robinson can keep the game close and take advantage of his stellar matchups.
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Noah Igbinogheni will make his second start of the season as the starting cornerback as the Commanders move their bench. Washington has been running its zone defense to its second-highest level this month, setting up Robinson (who ranks ninth in targets per route compared to zone coverage) as a consistent short-field target for Jackson Dart. With the Giants using fewer quarterbacks, Robinson could become a high-volume wide receiver and help the team move the franchise, as well as fantasy teams, into the second round.
