Polar bears are heading south. Are the Mets next?
Free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, the New York Mets’ leader in home runs, has agreed to a five-year, $155 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles. The contract, first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, brings an abrupt end to the burly slugger’s wildly successful seven-year tenure in Queens.
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Alonso tested the open market last winter, but was unable to secure a long-term contract and returned to the club that drafted him in 2016. Many believe a similar situation will unfold this offseason. Instead, agent Scott Boras found his client, who trails only Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber in long-ball passing since 2019, a record deal with a refreshingly aggressive Baltimore team.
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For the Mets, it’s the second shocking exit in as many days after longtime closer Edwin Diaz signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday. Combined with the trade of outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers in November, the Mets have parted ways with three of their five longest-tenured players in a matter of weeks. Only Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil remain the central figures defining the franchise’s recent history.
Apparently, New York’s disastrous 2025 season convinced president of baseball operations David Stearns that a roster shakeup was necessary. But now, die-hard Mets fans are saddened to see three beloved players leave the city and are growing increasingly agitated. The entire dynamic makes New York perhaps the most compelling team to watch as No. 1 and enter No. 2 this offseason.
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Here are five questions that will determine the remainder of this very important winter for the Mets.
1. Who does the money go to?
The Mets’ 2025 payroll is approximately $340 million, the second-highest payroll in the sport behind the Dodgers. Currently, according to FanGraphs, that number is “only” $279 million. Given owner Steve Cohen’s unlimited wealth, it’s hard to imagine the Mets taking a significant payroll cut after one of the most embarrassing seasons in recent memory.
Stearns has long said he wants to upgrade New York’s run-prevention gear. Then it makes sense to spend some money on starting pitching. There is no doubt that there are still three frontline players on the market: Franber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Japanese newcomer Tatsuya Imai. Of course, one of these three has to end the winter in blue and orange. Additionally, while former Brewers and Yankees closer Devin Williams has signed a three-year, $51 million contract, the Mets need to add at least one more bullpen player.
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Kyle Tucker, the consensus No. 1 player in the class, is another possible pivot, but locking two underperforming defenders in the corner outfield doesn’t seem to fit Stearns’ vision. Third baseman Alex Bregman makes sense for the Mets, though. Regardless, no player can replace Alonso’s power output, but Cohen has enough cash to enter 2026 as a World Series contender.
2. Can they pull off a blockbuster deal?
Despite a disappointing 2025, the Mets are still a healthy team. Stearns reinvigorated New York’s player development system and helped make it one of the best in baseball. Guys like Carson Benge and Jett Williams should round out the lineup early. The Mets also have a ton of talented young infielders at the major league level — Mark Vientous, Brett Batty, Luis Angel Acuña and Ronnie Mauricio — but not enough spots to compete with them. Then there are the three rookie pitchers in Nolan McLean, Jonah Town and Brandon Sprott.
That said, if the Mets want to sign Tarik Skubal, Kotel Marte or Mackenzie Gore, they certainly have the tools. Back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Skubal would be an exciting award to appease fans, but the Tigers remain unlikely to trade their ace this winter.
3. Who is the opening day center fielder?
With the team’s renewed focus on defense, it will be interesting to see who they choose to fill the most important position in the outfield. Current options on the roster include Tyrone Taylor and Jeff McNeil, who look poised to play some innings at first base following Alonso’s departure. While Taylor’s glove is above average, his bat performance has dropped to concerning levels in 2025.
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This creates a problem for the Mets, one they can’t count on free agency to solve. Cody Bellinger has excelled in center field but is best suited as an elite gloveman at corner. Even though Harrison Bader’s career is just coming to an end, there really isn’t another unquestionable option as a good second-string option. The Mets like Benji and Williams, both of whom can play center field, and don’t want to hinder their development. But the outlook is fickle and unpredictable. Maybe Stearns is just content to keep Taylor as a placeholder until the younger guy is ready.
4. Will they offload a veteran?
The worst development for the Mets’ 2025 season is the sudden implosion of one of the best starting rotations in the game. With the exception of the injured and released Frankie Montas, the entire team is set to return in 2026. Rookie Nolan McLean has performed well in eight starts and is the front-runner to get the ball first on Opening Day. Other than that, it’s a bit confusing.
Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Clay Holmes are all over 30 and coming off a horrific second half. The arrival of a mature free agent only adds another cook in the kitchen, which must include Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat in some form. Having pitching depth is never a bad thing, but this feels like a dynamic the Mets need to get rid of.
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5. How important is fan frustration?
The mood in Queens is not good right now. After such a disgraceful campaign, letting two franchise icons become free agents because you balked at the price isn’t going to inspire fans to buy season ticket packages. Last season, Steve Cohen publicly called on Mets fans to fill Citi Field. And they did, posting some of the league’s highest attendance figures. But unless Cohen, Stearns, et al. work magic, the fanbase may be a little lukewarm heading into 2026.
Whether this prompts leadership to do something flashy remains to be seen. Head coach Carlos Mendoza often says that winning solves everything. Ultimately, if the Mets win, people will show up; if the Mets win, people will show up. If they didn’t, the park would be half empty. that’s all. But the current situation is in stark contrast to the atmosphere in Queens last winter after Juan Soto was signed.
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Stearns deserves credit for the work he’s done with the infrastructure and timing based on what he accomplished in Milwaukee. The offseason can’t be properly evaluated until Opening Day is over. But now, the Mets’ front office has adopted a purposefully passive strategy that doesn’t exactly inspire good fundamentals.