The stakes have never been so high in a Carabao Cup final and the weight can be felt in the mood. During this time, Guardiola has been trying to figure things out. Will he step up the attack, as Manchester City have done recently, or repeat the restrained approach seen in the 1-1 draw with Arsenal in September? If it’s the former, is it the open midfield he’s been trying to do, or has Real Madrid learned too many lessons? What does it say about taking this approach to a big-screen game?
These variables give a tactical obsessive like Arteta a lot to think about, but he at least has a handle on his structure. That won’t change. The main issue is personnel and how much that changes the team’s focus; whether it’s Ricardo Calafiore or Piero Hincapi at left-back, for example. Martin Odegaard is expected to return to the bench, with Jurian Timber likely to start.
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In short, Arsenal have far less to think about. This was a very different situation from early February when the two teams advanced to the finals. At the time, the trophy was seen as vital to Arsenal’s bid to maintain momentum and leapfrog Manchester City, a key part of Arsenal’s pursuit of a first Premier League title in 22 years. This final looks like the first of a grand and unprecedented series in England, where maybe four or five games could decide everything, so the weight is even greater.
A week before the final, everything was sorted out. Manchester City had already been eliminated from the Champions League against Madrid, and a 1-1 draw with West Ham United in this match left Arsenal even further behind in the title race.
Their Premier League hopes are not gone, but their aura has. The foreboding feeling of the old city was gone.
This Arsenal team may be desperate to win their first trophy together, but that feels less important when the city doesn’t look like the trophy machine it once was.
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So, there was a twist before the game started. It now feels like this Carabao Cup final is more important for Manchester City than Arsenal.
This has sounded ridiculous for much of this season and the past few years, especially with Guardiola repeatedly relegating his former assistant to second place, but that’s what it’s been like this season. The fact that everyone is talking about this being the City manager’s last season, with the club still describing it as “speculation”, only adds to that. Regardless, Guardiola certainly doesn’t want to leave with a fruitless season.
Winning a fourth Carabao Cup for the manager and a historic ninth League Cup for Manchester City is valuable in itself, but more importantly is the impact it can have on everything else. This will remind Arsenal what the order is. That would put the league leaders back in their own box, having not beaten Arteta’s side in three years.
Arsenal have a psychological boost after Manchester City were knocked out of the Champions League and dropped points in the title race (PA Wire)
Perhaps most importantly, however, it will raise new questions for Arsenal at a time when confidence is building; Max Dowman appears to have helped remove any anxiety. Discussions about the quartet are temporarily heating up. This can end the situation quickly, but can do much more. If the six-year wait for a championship is extended any longer, at least until May, it would create even more room for collapse.
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But this is also the prospect facing Manchester City. It can be frustrating to see two trophies disappear in two games, combined with the distance further and further away from the top spot. From this point of view, it is not impossible for Manchester City to collapse if they lose on Sunday.
It’s true that City are always looking for first-team players on the pitch. It’s like almost every game could go either way. Some spells suggest spectacular attacks, but the faults of defense are immediately revealed. City are often both sublime and ridiculous in the same five minutes of football, as they were against Madrid.
A lot will come down to the atmosphere of this game, which is said to be one of the focal points and to try to remind everyone of the strength of this team. At Arsenal’s Colney base just 13 miles from Wembley, the first final since the 2020 FA Cup victory is being played down. There is a calmness that many say is welcome. After all, this season is characterized by an increase in most games. Perhaps it’s also natural that the mood softens, as it’s a break from all the noise surrounding the title.
Arsenal have a tried and tested blueprint and Guardiola may revise his formation again (Arsenal Football Club via Getty Images)
The wider gap in the league certainly helps that, especially as Arsenal now know they won’t be nine points ahead of Manchester City until April 12 at the earliest. That’s why last weekend was so important. Of course, this weekend could end up being viewed as even more critical depending on how things go.
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Arsenal are feeling good about the title race now, but things could change dramatically if their main chasers beat them and reverse that momentum again. Beyond that, it’s another Carabao Cup final, which means more than just the Carabao Cup, like many leagues. It’s about what it means for the future.
That’s part of why Newcastle United’s victory last year was so unique, because it was just about the trophy. Maybe you’d have to go back to Swansea City in 2013 to achieve something similar.
So when it comes to Arsenal, you don’t really need to read those old sayings about how Chelsea’s victory in 2005 breathed life into the Jose Mourinho era, or Brian Clough’s quote about how the Anglo-Scottish Cup brought “the positive things that only a trophy, whatever it is, can bring” to his great Nottingham Forest side. Times have changed. Things are different.
Guardiola will have the chance to become the most successful manager in Carabao Cup history when Manchester City take on Arsenal at Wembley (Getty Images)
However, this was the first Carabao Cup final to feature both sides since 1978, and was a clash between Liverpool and Forest. Clough’s side eventually won the League Cup and League Championship double.
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That season was the first time the feat had been achieved and both Manchester City and Arsenal were hoping to do it for the 12th time. City have managed it four times, three of which have been under Guardiola.
However, in order to adapt to the situation of today’s times, both parties are pursuing more. Manchester City are targeting a domestic treble. Arsenal’s target is a quadruple crown. The stakes have never been higher in the Carabao Cup and this marks a big shift. The final itself may well mark another game.