The Guardians re-signed Austin Hedges and revamped their bullpen. What else can they do or not do before Opening Day of spring training in about six weeks?
First, I want to address some of the pushback I’m having because I don’t think the Guardians are going to make a big move with the bat to help their roster. While the team does have enough time to do something, I point people to three indicators as to why I think they’re unlikely to do it:
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After the season, both Mike Chernoff and Chris Antonetti admitted their 28th-ranked offense needed help. In 2024, they said the same thing about their rotation, which they retooled in the offseason with young players like Slade Cecconi and the now-infamous Luis Ortiz.
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The next time we hear from Chernoff, Antonetti, and Vogt at the Winter Meetings, they’re focusing on the bullpen and saying they don’t want to sign a hitter who will hold up their young players.
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Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel began pointing out in his podcast and articles that teams seemed to have little incentive to buy bats and spend money to get even a payroll at 2025 levels. Paul Hoynes, for what he’s worth, hQ10as also expressed confidence that there won’t be any moves for the big hitter. These are the best sources we have among beat reporters.
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We’re facing a lockout in 2027 that could extend into the entire season. Since Paul Dolan plans to hand over management control to David Blitzer, it makes sense (cold, financial) to reduce his salary as much as possible during a period when revenue is likely to be negatively impacted.
I would be happy to be proven wrong by the Dolan brothers. They had ample opportunity to demonstrate that my assumptions were premature and hasty, and I urge them to do so. Asking Jose Ramirez and the fans to accept another year of salary cuts after the team makes the playoffs again seems like a bridge too far to me. But what do I know?
If the Guardians do take action, what other actions could they take? Let’s take a look at some of the available free agents (note: I suspect the Guardians will acquire 1-3 starting pitchers on minor league deals, or in John Means-level ML deals if they’re coming off injuries, but my focus is on hitters, here):
No way: Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette.
Analysis: If they sign one of these players, I’ll be streaming myself eating a Guardians cap.
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Extremely unlikely:
Kaz Okamoto, RHH 1B/3B – 29 years old, free agent from Japan, projected 110 wRC+
Harrison Bader, RHH CF – 31 years old, projected to have a 93 wRC+ against LHP and a career 106 wRC+ while playing a solid defensive midfield role
analyze:
The Guardians have never signed a free agent from Japan, so I don’t see any reason for them to do so now, as Okamoto said. I don’t believe they will give Bader money to start a midfielder, which some other teams certainly do. Okamoto’s death bothers me more than Bud.
specious:
Rhys Hoskins, RHH DH/1B. 32 years old, projected 104 wRC+, career vs LHP 137 wRC+. Not a good defensive first baseman.
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Ty France, RHH DH/1B, 31 years old, projected to have a 101 wRC+ against RHP and LHP, and a career 110 wRC+.
Ramon Urias, RHH IF, 31 years old, projected 96 wRC+ against LHP, 105 career wRC+. Good at second or third, not short.
Luis Urias, RHH IF, 28 years old, projected 97 wRC+ with LHP, 109 career wRC+. Well, second or third, not short term.
Austin Hays, RHH OF, 30 years old, projected 93 wRC+ against LHP, 124 career wRC+, probably only viable in LF, but maybe better if you squint in the middle?
Miguel Andujar, RHH 1B/3B/OF, 30 years old, projected to have a 107 wRC+ against LHP and a career 121 wRC+, might just be an average defensive option at first and be terrible everywhere else.
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Chas McCormick, RHH CF, 30 years old, projects an 89 wRC+ against LHP and a career 137 wRC+. The center defends well.
analyze: In terms of potential Guardians price range and possible upgrades to existing options, the only players that make sense to me are Andujar and McCormick. At this point, both the landing and feel are huge. However, they may have landed McCormick in Stuart Fairchild and may have thought David Fry could be available at first base and Andujar in right field.
Trade Targets: Hitters rumored to be available
Unlikely:
Ketel Marte, SH 2B, 32 years old
Luis Robert Jr, RHH CF, 28
analyze: Forgive me for not believing the Guardians would give up on the potential players they need to acquire a franchise, fringe HoF player like Marte, who is over 30 years old, as much as I’d love to see that happen. I also don’t think the Guardians will take on the $20 million Robert is owed, and they may have clubhouse fit issues. So, I’m not including their predictions and statistics here because, why bother?
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specious:
Jake Meyers, RHH CF, 29, is projected to have a 99 wRC+ against LHP and a career 110 wRC+. Great center defender.
Alec Bohm, RHH 3B/1B, projected 108 wRC+, career 133 wRC+ against LHP. Should be a good first baseman. It’s unclear whether Philadelphia has any interest in moving him.
Ryan Mountcastle, RHH 1B, 28, is projected to have a 101 wRC+ against LHP and has a career 128 wRC+. Excellent defensive first baseman.
Brendan Donovan, LHH 2B/LF, projected 118 wRC+, above average defensively at second or left. Doesn’t affect LHP at all.
Lars Nootbaar, LHH OF, 28 years old, projected 115 wRC+, evenly spread, can get the most out of center, but best position may have been left behind. Encountered many injuries.
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Analysis: Mount Castle seems like the most likely to be moved, and I could see working here if the Guardians and Orioles see similar asking prices. Meyers is tempting, but I doubt the Guardians will pay a potential fee for a starting midfielder given the lack of midfielders in the game.
The bottom line is that I still believe the Guardians will either sign Chas McCormick in mid-January or do basically nothing to address the hitting issues. But I fully expect them to prove me wrong.
