This is a huge swing and miss for much of the baseball prediction industry.
Since breaking the NPB domestic home run record in 2022, Munetaka Murakami has been hailed as the next Japanese talent expected to make a name for himself stateside. The hype has only intensified over the past few months as it became clear that Murakami’s NPB club, the Yakult Swallows, would be offering his opportunity to MLB teams via the release system this winter.
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And because Murakami has such a unique profile on the open market — just 25 years old and possessing top-tier raw power — the overwhelming assumption is that the Japanese slugger will cost the MLB organization nine figures between his contract and the release fee paid to the Swallows. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs projects a seven-year, $154 million contract. FanGraphs’ crowdsourced project was slightly lower at 6/132. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel was the lower scorer with a relatively low 5/80. The good folks at MLB Trade Rumors were the most optimistic, signing the corner infielder to an eight-year, $180 million contract. At Yahoo, we don’t publish contract forecasts, but if we did, we would definitely hit the $100 million mark.
In the end, we were all wrong.
Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. It’s a low-risk, high-reward move for Southsiders. Even if Murakami joins, the Red Sox’s payroll will be minimal. The worst-case scenario is not a disaster. If Murakami solves this problem, they’ll get middle-of-the-order gear on the cheap.
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While the signing may have been exciting for Red Sox fans, Murakami’s story revolves around the lackluster contract he ultimately signed. So what exactly is going on here? How did a player with a $100 million price tag end up with a contract smaller than Joc Pederson’s last winter?
Well, it turns out that despite Murakami’s game-changing power, no team truly believed he had the potential to be a game-changing force in the majors. This mostly has to do with the slugger’s extremely worrisome swing and miss numbers. Murakami’s contact rate has been around 70 in the Swallows’ zone. The average MLB batting average is usually around 82%. Only six qualified major leaguers scored below 80 percent last season, and only one (Raphael Devers) fell below 75 percent. On a related note, Murakami’s strikeout rate over the past three seasons is as high as 28.8%, the fourth-highest mark in the NPB during that period.
Considering those significant contact struggles with NPB pitching, MLB clubs are understandably skeptical that Murakami will be able to make enough contact with elite arms to be an impact bat.
As one team official put it: “Like, can he really hit the ball?”
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This is where Murakami’s actual market differs significantly from industry expectations. When push comes to shove, clubs are often scared away by the smell of the area. The same goes for the White Sox, who should still be excited about this signing. The market for Murakami simply didn’t materialize, and no team was willing to hire a hitter with such significant issues long-term.
A similar cloud hangs over Murakami’s defensive future, which will only make teams more cautious about making major investments. To the public, Murakami is considered a third baseman, although evaluators have always considered him a first baseman, and not a particularly good one. He lacks lateral agility, and while his arm is comfortable, the defensive hand is not. Some teams will immediately move him to DH. Murakami’s huge offensive risk might be more acceptable to teams if there was something resembling a defense. The result is clearly not the case.
In retrospect, it’s interesting that Murakami’s path to free agency was so quiet, with no rumors, connections or buzz. The dynamic is believed to be related to his agency, Excel Sports Management, led by Casey Close, which has a record of operating in secrecy. Murakami was the agency’s first big Japanese client, and silence was seen as a tactic. It seems clear now that, with the final numbers so small, the lack of news had more to do with a lack of interest.
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Murakami’s case stands in stark contrast to many Japanese pitchers who have taken a dive in recent years. For example, World Series hero Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is similar in age to Haruki Murakami, received a 12-year, $325 million contract from the Dodgers before the 2024 season. But it’s just a very different dynamic for Japanese hitters and pitchers.
Thanks to pitch-tracking technology, evaluators have a strong feel for how Yamamoto’s production stacks up against MLB pitching. That’s why the Dodgers and a few other clubs are willing to pay over the $300 million mark for a guy who’s never pitched on “The Show.” Yamamoto is also an elite athlete with incredible ability, so he’s believed to be able to make the necessary adjustments against elite hitters. That’s exactly what happened.
Overall, things are not that simple for Japanese bats. The difference in fastball velocity between NPB and MLB is significant. And the hits are reactive. The list of players who have successfully made the leap is also much smaller. It seems that for every Suzuki Seiya, there are multiple Tsutsugo Gichichi.
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Even Shohei Ohtani, the ultimate outlier in every way, seemed to have red flags when he signed with the Angels. While the four-time MVP has grown into one of the most fearsome hitters in the game, Ohtani hasn’t really fixed this flaw in his game. In 2025, the Dodgers are a quarter of a percent off the DH mark. Ohtani’s success is an insightful best-case scenario for Murakami in this regard; if you make quality connections frequently, you can reduce them overall.
As it stands, Murakami’s exit speed isn’t quite as fast as Otani’s, but it’s not far off. Still, in order for him to make an impact in the best league in the world, Murakami will need to make adjustments in his swing technique and approach. This kind of power of his is hard to come by, especially when he’s young. That’s why people like this guy in the first place, why people like me are willing to donate nine figures, why the White Sox are willing to donate $34 million.
For Murakami, the end result of free agency was disappointing, but far from disastrous. He will re-enter the market in two years before his age-28 season. If he proves his talent between now and then, he’ll make money. If not, he won’t.
Teams just want to see him do it first.