Ukrainian drones are attacking oil facilities deep inside Russia, producing plumes of smoke visible from space and bringing toxic rain to tourist destinations on the Black Sea.
The attacks were aimed at cutting Moscow’s oil exports, its main source of funding for its brutal invasion of Ukraine. But so far the economic impact is unclear, as higher oil prices resulting from the Iran war and a corresponding easing of U.S. sanctions have helped replenish the Kremlin’s coffers.
Still, the scope of the attack and its environmental impact gave ordinary Russians far away from the front lines a new appreciation for the war.
Oil leaks into the streets
Ukrainian drones have struck oil refineries and export terminals in the Black Sea town of Tuapse four times in just two weeks, causing fires, prompting evacuations and sending plumes of smoke. The town is approximately 450 kilometers (280 miles) from the front line.
After the third attack on April 18, local governor Veniamin Kondratyev released a video in which an emergency official said boiling petroleum products spilled onto the street and damaged cars.
Ukraine said on Thursday it had attacked an oil pumping station for two consecutive days in Russia’s Perm region, more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) away. Russian media reported the attack, but Perm region governor Dmitry Mahonin said only that the drone struck an industrial facility.
Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, one of Russia’s largest oil and gas export terminals, was hit three times in one week in late March. More than 800 kilometers (500 miles) from Ukraine.
In a broadcast weeks later, regional governor Alexander Drozdenko declared the area around St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-largest city, a “frontline area” due to threats from the air.
Ukraine says attack cost Russia billions of dollars
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky compared such attacks to international sanctions against Russia. They are considered even more important as Moscow is profiting from the global energy crisis linked to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Zelensky said on Friday that Russia had lost at least $7 billion since the start of the year due to attacks on its oil industry. Earlier this week, he said Ukrainian intelligence showed a drop in exports from major oil ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk.
Drone strikes have also disrupted Russia’s refining capabilities, while sanctions have made it difficult to obtain replacement parts, experts said.
But as Russia benefits from the Middle East crisis, its full economic impact remains unclear.
The International Energy Agency said that Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports increased by 320,000 barrels per day in March from the previous month, reaching 7.1 million barrels. Higher prices meant oil export revenues nearly doubled from $9.7 billion to $19 billion. It’s unclear whether April’s strikes will disrupt that trend.
“U.S. action against Iran saved the Russian oil industry and the federal budget from the crisis that became apparent in late February,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy.
Meanwhile, damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure was far less severe than the massive explosion would suggest, he said.
“If you hit a tank, especially a tank that’s not full, the steam will ignite and create a flame. So it looks pretty spectacular.” But that would only delay delivery by a few days, he said.
“It’s much less damaging than hitting pumping stations, compressors or loading infrastructure. And those facilities appear to be well protected. But the storage tanks are not.”
Long-range drones extend Russia’s defenses
The ability to strike critical infrastructure inside Russia highlights Ukraine’s growing military capabilities and puts pressure on Moscow’s overwhelmed air defenses. It also forces more Russians to face the consequences of a war the government claims to have won.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian military’s deep strike capabilities have more than doubled in scope since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The increased range also allows drones to attack sites from different directions, complicating countermeasures.
“Drone strikes have been a very successful example so far, using simple technology and domestically assembled technology to attack Russia who, at the start of the war, never expected to be attacked,” said Dr. Marcel Plichta, a candidate in the School of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews.
“This capability didn’t exist” four years ago, he said.
May have long-term consequences
Russian officials are generally reluctant to comment on deep strikes.
But the Tuapse attack and subsequent images captured the attention of Russian media. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned there would be “serious environmental consequences” while insisting the situation remained under control.
Officials warned of high levels of benzene, a carcinogen found in petroleum products, in the air at the time of the fire and urged residents to limit outdoor activities.
Residents also widely reported “black rain” with oil droplets falling on their skin and clothing. Local news outlets published photos of stray dogs and cats with their fur dyed gray. Oil spills along coastlines have covered birds and fish, and Russian media recently circulated images of stranded dolphins.
The images shocked Russians who are used to vacationing on the Black Sea coast.
Vladimir Slivyak, co-chairman of the Russian environmental group Ecodefense, said this could have long-term effects on human health and the region’s ecosystems.
“There’s a lot of oil in the sea,” he said. “Each storm will bring more oil pollution to the coast in the coming years.”
The strike has yet to spark a public backlash amid a crackdown on dissent. But that could change as the damage spreads.
“I think a lot of people understand that there’s a big difference between what Putin said and what the local authorities said and what actually happened,” Sliviak said.