No matter what, this is a playoff game.
With Saturday’s result going against the Cyclones, Iowa State’s trajectory in the Big 12 Tournament is simple. If they win, they will become the seventh seed and play their first game on Thursday. If they lose, they’ll be either a No. 9 or No. 10 seed and will play Wednesday. While ESPN still favors Iowa State with a 68% chance of winning, the Kansas State team still had a close contest with the Cyclones in Ames, which the Cyclones ultimately won 76-72. With both teams having lost their last two games, everyone is hungry for a win as the playoffs approach.
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Dilemma on interior defense
If you’ve watched the past two games, then I know you can point to a factor regarding the defense, but I’ll give you some numbers to validate your belief. Over the past two games, Iowa State has given up 86 points in the paint. By comparison, Iowa State scored 56 points in the period. TCU and OSU developed a simple but effective strategy where they could drive to the paint and make a clean layup, or take Audi off her assignment and get a bounce pass to the paint for a different layup. This was an adjustment that TCU made to complete a big comeback a week ago, while OSU dragged the game to the end after three tense quarters.
The last two games are a golden opportunity to reestablish themselves as a formidable opponent and still live up to the high pre-season expectations. Now, I still believe Iowa State is capable of playing against the top teams in the conference, but the past two games have shown clear weaknesses in closing games down the stretch and there’s no time left to adjust.
In the end, the sky has not fallen yet…
This team looks great in some ways, and a lot of the numbers still show a high ceiling. Although Iowa State ranks seventh in the league in three-point attempts, it ranks first in the league in three-point field goal percentage thanks to a 37% three-point field goal percentage. 1.1 points per possession is generally considered the ceiling for an offense, so I think Iowa State needs to shoot from beyond the arc more often, especially with multiple options. Iowa State has four players shooting better than 39% from three-point range, three of whom have attempted at least 100 shots, and the fourth is Addie Brown, who missed 11 games.
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Since Addie Brown’s return, Audie Crooks has averaged 23 points per game, an improvement from the 20.45 points he averaged without the star forward. The team averages only 9.33 turnovers per game and averages 20.66 assists per game. A team’s average assist-to-turnover ratio of over 2.0 per game is very good. Most teams in the league average more turnovers than assists per game. Iowa State is in the rare position of leading the league in assists while also allowing the fewest turnovers.
Points? this team It can be good. If that translates to 40 minutes, that’s when they become really dangerous.
K-State is going through a rough patch.
While their March hopes are likely to be dashed during the non-conference season, Kansas State is trying to avoid falling three games short at the end of the regular season. A second loss to the Jayhawks and an 80-54 win over Baylor will certainly be hard to come back from, but they should feel confident in this game as it did come down to the wire before Kenzie Hare’s 3-pointer finally sealed the win.
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In his first game in Ames, Talon Sides scored 23 points, including 3-6 from three-point range and 4-4 from the free throw line. Iowa State bucked a season trend by winning the game 25-28 with a stunning free throw shooting from the free throw line. While that rate may not be sustainable, they’ve shot nearly 80% from the line over their past four games and 70% in conference play. If you were Kansas State, I’d say they were still in position to win, but a well-above-average night from the free throw line and 27 fouls ultimately doomed them.
Having said that, what is the key to victory? Here are my thoughts.
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Close lanes defensively. In their games against TCU and OSU, there were many times when opponents were driving to the basket but lacked resistance. If Audie Crooks comes in to help, there will be a lot of bounce passes and offensive rebounds that lead to a score. This must be stopped now.
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Audi is still the first choice. Kansas State is still the same size as it was two weeks ago, and much of the foul trouble plaguing the Wildcats can be attributed to misguided attempts to stop the 6-foot-3 center. Kansas State must prove they’ve found a new approach that works.
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Everyone is a major deep threat. With rain expected in Manhattan, Iowa needs to make it rain inside Bramlage Coliseum. With so many threats facing them, Kansas State has too many options to ignore any of them.