Satellite images show a large suspected oil slick spreading near Iran’s main oil export terminal, Khargah Island, which experts say could be evidence that Tehran’s oil infrastructure is collapsing under increasing pressure from the United States.
The oil slick seen in Copernicus Sentinel satellite images between Wednesday and Friday covered an area of about 45 square kilometers west of the island, Reuters reported, citing analysts.
The incident is emerging as a potential sign that Trump’s maritime pressure campaign is achieving one of its core goals: overwhelming Iran’s export system so that Tehran can no longer transport or store crude oil fast enough to maintain normal production.
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A suspected spill near Iran’s main oil hub has fueled concerns that growing U.S. pressure is overwhelming Tehran’s ability to store or export crude, potentially forcing Iran to resort to dangerous solutions and affecting the Gulf’s environment.
The oil slick seen in Copernicus Sentinel satellite images between Wednesday and Friday covered an area of about 45 square kilometers west of the island, Reuters reported, citing analysts.
(Reuters)
“I see two plausible explanations at this stage, and they’re not mutually exclusive,” Miad Maleki, an Iran sanctions and energy expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
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“One is operational: they simply are not reducing extraction fast enough relative to their true onshore capacity and are overcounting empty tankers that are breaching the blockade,” he said.
“Now they’ve actually over-delivered crude into the export system, there’s more crude at or near the terminals than they can actually load, and the ‘solution’ is to push some of that excess crude into the water.”
Malki said another possible explanation was that the mechanical failure was related to Iran’s use of the aging tanker as a floating storage facility or as a transport vessel in violation of sanctions.
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Satellite images this week showed a suspected oil spill in dozens of square kilometers of sea near Khag Island, Iran’s main oil center.
“They’re hauling older marginal tonnage into floating storage or shipping vessels that are violating sanctions, and some of those decommissioned or poorly maintained vessels are now leaking,” he said.
“Either way, the common denominator is the same — storage and evacuation capabilities are out of sync with upstream output, and the Gulf region is paying the price for this mismatch.”
The incident comes as the Trump administration continues its “economic fury” campaign against Iran, combining sanctions enforcement with a growing U.S. naval presence around the Strait of Hormuz aimed at limiting Iran’s oil exports.
Before the conflict, Iran exported about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, most of which went to China. Analysts say the blockade and the threat of sanctions on shipping companies and financial institutions are making it increasingly difficult for Tehran to move crude out of Kharg Island.
Reuters reported that the oil slick looked like a “grey-white” plume to the west of the 8-kilometer-long island.
Leon Moreland, a researcher at the Observatory on Conflict and the Environment, told Reuters the slicks were “visually consistent with oil,” while Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, said it could be the largest spill since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began some 70 days ago.
Khag Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports and has become a key bottleneck in the Trump administration’s efforts to cut off the regime’s main source of revenue during the ongoing war.
Energy analysts say Iran now faces a dangerous dilemma. If Iran is unable to export oil or find additional storage capacity, it may be forced to shut down wells, risking long-term damage to the fields, or dispose of excess crude in a manner that could trigger environmental impacts across the Gulf.
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“They have reduced extraction. In a real lockdown situation, the limiting factor is not production at the wellhead but the inability to load tankers at export terminals,” Maleki said.
“Once onshore storage approaches capacity, production must be cut to match the remaining space or the wells will be shut in,” he added. “In the case of Iran, it’s about 13 days.”
The environmental impacts are also causing alarm throughout the Gulf.
Maritime risk intelligence company Windward estimated the oil slick was moving southeast at about 2 kilometers per hour and warned it could reach Qatar’s exclusive economic zone within days and drift toward the United Arab Emirates within two weeks.
The desalination infrastructure relied upon by millions of people in the Gulf remains particularly vulnerable to major oil pollution events.
The oil spill also comes amid heightened military tensions in the Gulf. The war has stranded hundreds of ships in the region and caused one of the worst disruptions to global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies in recent years.
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An oil tanker was seen near a dock at Iran’s Khargah Island, where U.S. officials and analysts are considering whether seizing the island could seriously impact Iran’s oil exports.
Iranian authorities have not commented publicly on the suspected leak or its possible causes.
Fox News Digital reached out to Iran’s mission to the United Nations for comment.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Original source of the article: Trump’s blockade has squeezed Iran so hard, experts say, the regime may be dumping oil into the Gulf
