Asian stocks posted their best performance in months, with S&P 500 futures rising after the president said he would give the nation a “significant update” on Iran on Wednesday night. Oil prices pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to use force to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin was trading at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% in 24 hours, as optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ethereum rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily gain in weeks.
XRP was up 0.5% at $1.34, Dogecoin was up 0.5% at $0.09, and BNB was up 0.4% at $616. Solana’s SOL lagged significantly, falling 0.7% to $83.14, extending its weekly decline to 8.7%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index soared 4%, its best performance since then, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every stock that fell. Asian technology stocks rose 6.5%, with Samsung and SK Hynix both rising more than 9%. S&P 500 futures rose, with the index posting its biggest one-day gain since May.
The catalyst was Trump telling reporters that he expected the war to be over in two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. He will address the nation Wednesday at 9 p.m.
China Eastern provided what he called an “important update.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran “has the necessary will to end this war” but wanted guarantees against future aggression.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the United States and its allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf country to participate in the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude oil edged back above $105 after falling on Tuesday.
Cryptocurrency markets have reacted mutedly relative to stocks, a pattern that has persisted for weeks. Throughout the war, the price of Bitcoin has hovered between $65,000 and $73,000, while the stock market fluctuated wildly on every headline. The gap between the cryptocurrency’s sideways range and the stock market’s correction-level decline remains the most significant difference on the cross-asset chart.
Beyond geopolitics, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF was approved with a fee of just 14 basis points, 11 basis points lower than the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors who manage $6.2 trillion, a channel that previously had no direct Bitcoin ETF exposure.
Two Prime CEO Alex Blume pointed to three catalysts that could push Bitcoin higher in the third quarter — the Morgan Stanley ETF, the continued success of Strategy’s STRC preferred equity product in funding Bitcoin purchases, and a swift resolution to the war in Iran.
“Much of the market uncertainty may soon be resolved,” Bloom said in an email to CoinDesk. “Coupled with the new buying power, a strong second quarter may be on the way.”
Gold rose for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, despite falling nearly 12% in March, its worst monthly performance since October 2008. Precious metals continue to defy historical precedent as they continue to weaken in the heat of battle.
Whether Trump’s speech on Wednesday leads to real exits or is just another headline in a month full of exits will determine whether this rally can be sustained. As one analyst said, “I’m not convinced in the long term. Investors will soon want concrete evidence that the war is ending.”
