This weather forecast is a suspense.
With only 48 hours until the storm arrives, computer models often arrive at a common solution. Not this time.
As of 6 a.m. Friday, models were still predicting a variety of outcomes. Here’s what they showed for Central Jersey:
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US models: 19 to 21 inches.
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European models: 2 to 3 inches.
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European AI models: 4 to 6 inches.
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German models: 6 to 10 inches.
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UK models: 2 to 3 inches.
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Canadian models: 1 to 3 inches.
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National Weather Service Hybrid Model: 8 to 11 inches.
The National Weather Service is taking a middle-of-the-road approach, predicting 2 to 6 inches of rain in the region but saying the outlook is “highly uncertain” and could change.
“Don’t focus on the specific details of our forecast just yet,” the agency said.
During forecast discussions, the weather service acknowledged large gaps between models, noting that the results depend on the trajectory of upper-level low pressure thousands of miles away in the Midwest and West Coast.
The models disagree on whether a new low that forms off the mid-Atlantic coast will hug the coastline and rapidly intensify — a process known as a “bomb blast” — bringing heavy snow and strong winds. This situation is favored by the American model.
Other guidance, including European and British models, showed weaker storms further offshore. This will result in only light snow across central Jersey, mostly covering areas exposed by this week’s February thaw.
“The chance of widespread snow accumulation continues to increase,” the Bureau of Meteorology wrote. “However, confidence in forecast snowfall amounts remains low.”
The forecast “should receive better attention by tonight,” the agency said.
New Jersey snowfall totals; search by address
USA TODAY’s snow map shows snowfall amounts over the past 24, 48 and 72 hours, as well as seasonal snowfall totals dating back to October 1. The map is updated multiple times a day, and you can switch between time ranges to see how much snowfall is in your area.
Email: mdeak@MyCentralJersey.com
This article originally appeared on MyCentralJersey.com: Central Jersey snow forecast uncertain due to model conflict