Things are looking a bit grim Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency: BTC) Now. It’s down 42% from its all-time high of $126,000 a few months ago, trading at just $72,000.
No wonder prediction market traders on Polymarket only see a 1% chance of Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 price level by the end of March. After all, Bitcoin has risen 108% in just 30 days, which is almost unimaginable.
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But that 1% chance may tell a very different story about Bitcoin than people think. Here’s why.
Many investors still underestimate Bitcoin’s volatility. Even in the years when Bitcoin has experienced huge rallies, it has had its peaks and troughs. Even in good economic years, the price of Bitcoin does not rise in a straight line.
Of course, the long-term trajectory is straight up. But along the way, there was a lot of panic, selling, and flash crashes.
This is a chart of Bitcoin in 2020, when its price rose an incredible 304%. Bitcoin’s price actually quadrupled that year, but the first nine months were marked by plenty of false starts, sudden shifts, and false exits. It wasn’t until October that Bitcoin really started to gain momentum.
And, if you study Bitcoin’s historical data, one fact becomes obvious: Bitcoin can transform in an instant. It could fall 40% one quarter and then rebound 25% the next, as it did in 2021. There is no gradual recovery for Bitcoin.
Simply put, Bitcoin is more volatile than any typical stock. It may not matter how Bitcoin performs in one quarter because it could suddenly reverse course the next. Here’s why Bitcoin’s poor performance in Q1 2026 may not matter as much as you think.
According to the latest research Galaxy Digitalprediction markets tend to exaggerate consensus. This is because they emphasize binary yes/no outcomes.
This sometimes makes prediction market traders make mistakes. They believe that there is a 1% chance of something happening in the future and immediately assume that there is broad consensus among traders. Now, it seems the entire crypto world is turning against Bitcoin.
However, there is a big difference between thinking that Bitcoin might reach a certain price and being absolutely 100% convinced. Those on the fence about Bitcoin may change their views overnight. Once this occurs, the probabilities may change significantly.
I am skeptical about the 1% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of March. This is because I don’t pay attention to the quarterly or even annual price of Bitcoin. I’m looking at the long-term price of Bitcoin.
With this in mind, Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency whose price has grown exponentially in a very short period of time. Thirteen years ago, I was convinced that anyone who tried to predict the future price of Bitcoin (when Bitcoin was trading below $100) could never have predicted the day when Bitcoin would trade above $100,000. After all, getting a 1,000x return in just ten years is pretty impossible, right?
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Dominic Basulto holds a position in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool holds and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Markets Predict Bitcoin Priced at $150,000 by March — Here’s Why I Still Wouldn’t Bet on This Crypto Wildcard Originally Posted by Motley Fool