NFL playoff picks, wild-card game predictions: Bears win Packers grudge game, Bills beat Jaguars originally appeared on The Sporting News. Click here to add Sports News as your go-to source.
Wild Card Weekend features three games, with the away team being the favourite.
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Would you expect less? Last year, the home team had a 5-1 record. In the past two playoff games, the underdogs are 3-3 on wild-card weekend.
Three away teams are favored this year. The Rams are double-digit favorites in Carolina, which opens the NFL playoffs on Saturday. Buffalo is favored in Jacksonville on Sunday and the Texans are favored in Pittsburgh on Monday. Which home team – if any – will be there to pull off a so-called upset?
The score of Green Bay’s grudge matchup with Chicago could also fluctuate in the week leading up to Saturday’s primetime game. San Francisco travels to Philadelphia for a matchup of the last two NFC champions, and the Chargers head to New England for a prime-time showdown on Sunday.
We have three away teams winning this weekend. Check out our regular season results:
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Confrontation spread: 127-142-3
Here are our picks for Wild Card Weekend:
More 2026 NFL Playoffs:
NFL Draft, Wild Card Weekend Predictions
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Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Carolina Panthers
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Is this disrespectful to the Panthers? Carolina beat Los Angeles 31-28 in Week 13. In that game, Bryce Young threw for 206 yards and three touchdowns to three different receivers, while the defense capitalized on three turnovers. This is one of three games this season where Los Angeles has had multiple turnovers, and they are 0-3 S/U in those games. Los Angeles should learn from this experience and Matthew Stafford should return Davante Adams this week to line up with Puka Nakua, Kyren Williams and the NFL’s best offensive scorers. The Panthers sit 3-1 ATS as underdogs by seven points or more, which is a huge advantage for a road favorite in the playoffs. Barring a turnover, however, Los Angeles will advance to the NFC Divisional Round.
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Pick: Rams 28, Panthers 16
More: How the Panthers won the NFC South title while losing to the Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (-1)
Saturday, 8 p.m., Prime Video
The Packers and Bears played two classic games in the regular season. Chicago has a +5 turnover margin over its past four games, and Caleb Williams has helped lead the team to the playoffs. Green Bay is stuck on a four-game losing streak, but Jordan Love will return for the first time since exiting a Week 16 game with a concussion. Matt LaFleur has to be aggressive in the passing game – and if Love is hot, the Packers can definitely win this game on the road. Chicago will rely on the running game – the Packers have to prove they can stop it. Since Micah Parsons’ injury, they’ve allowed 198 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. This was a game where both sides were giving it their all, with Green Bay possibly leading at halftime but the Bears running late.
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Pick: Bears 24, Packers 21
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Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS/Paramount+
Jacksonville will have a hard time dealing with the Bills in a raucous atmosphere. The Jaguars are 4-1 S/U at home in the playoffs, a franchise record, and Liam Cohen has done a great job as a rookie coach under Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown 12 touchdowns and one interception in his past five starts. So why is Buffalo favored? Josh Allen has a career-high 40 sacks this season, but he can still make the playoffs. The Bills still have a running game built around James Cook, who will be crucial on the road, and playoff experience will be important as well. Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, but three of those losses came against Kansas City. The big-game experience is important — and Buffalo found a way in the weekend’s highest-scoring game.
Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 28
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San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Are the 49ers healthy enough here? Trent Williams (hamstring) and Ricky Pearsall (ankle, knee) missed Week 18 and will need to monitor their status ahead of the showdown with the Eagles. Brock Purdy has a completion rate of 73.4% in San Francisco’s last four games. Can the 49ers run defense hold up? San Francisco allowed 145 rushing yards per game to the Bears and Seahawks over the past two weeks while Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley had byes. How important is rapid attack? S/U is 4-0 at home when Philadelphia rushes for 100 or more yards and 1-3 at home when Philadelphia rushes for less than 100 yards. In Philadelphia, opposing teams are 2-1 when rushing for 130 yards or more. Could Christian McCaffrey have a monster game here?
Pick: Eagles 26, 49ers 23
More: Eagles lose a chance at the NFC’s second seed with a crushing loss to the Commanders
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
The Chargers have won four of their last five games, and their defense has forced 11 turnovers in that span. Los Angeles is 5-3 on the road this season and this is a chance for Justin Herbert to get his first playoff victory. Herbert has a passer rating of 94.7 on the road this season, but he has been sacked 16 times in his past four starts. Injuries along the offensive line have taken their toll. This was the first postseason start for Drake Maye, who went 5-3 with a 105.8 passer rating at Gillette Stadium. The weather won’t be the biggest factor and the coaching matchup between Jim Harbaugh and Mike Vrabel will be interesting. New England is 5-2 ATS when the team leads by seven points or less.
Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
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Houston Texans (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
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How will the Steelers continue their momentum from their dramatic regular-season finale victory over the Ravens? DK Metcalf will return and TJ Watt (lung) will return in Week 18. The Texans have allowed 15.4 points on the road this season and C.J. Stroud is 2-0 in the wild-card round. The Steelers are 1-2 S/U at home this season but ended up beating Baltimore. How will Rodgers attack a Houston pass defense that ranks sixth in the NFL and hasn’t allowed more than 235 yards in a game this season? Pittsburgh is 3-3 S/U when Rodgers has three or more sacks, and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) are the NFL’s top sack duo this season.
Pick: Texans 23, Steelers 18
More: Can Aaron Rodgers end his playoff win drought against the Texans?
