Is Carson Beck a dark horse first round pick in 2026 NFL Draft?

The 2026 NFL Draft is quickly approaching as the annual league meeting wraps up in Phoenix, Arizona. The team is now finalizing their draft boards and completing their due diligence.

A key part of the process is for each team to call on its top 30 prospects. While these players may not necessarily rank among the team’s top 30, visits from these players often indicate which potential players the team is seriously considering.

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Quarterback is a position that always gets a lot of scrutiny. After Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, the competition for QB3 in this class is still up in the air.

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However, there’s one name that’s starting to gain incredible momentum lately: Carson Beck, the former Georgia Bulldogs and Miami Hurricanes quarterback.

Baker has logged three known or reported visits to top-30 teams, meeting with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins’ visit qualifies as a local visit, meaning it does not count toward the top-30 limit. However, the other two meetings carry more weight because neither team is local.

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It’s worth noting that both teams appear to have long-term answers at quarterback. Meanwhile, despite signing Malik Willis, reports suggest the Dolphins may still be evaluating contingency plans.

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This background makes Baker’s visit all the more interesting. He entered the 2025 season as a potential Heisman favorite and was projected to be a strong first-round candidate in the 2025 NFL Draft before suffering an injury at UCL in 2024.

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Baker’s up-and-down season in Miami showed flashes of him as a mature, experienced passer capable of handling the ball at the next level. However, as the season progressed, his arm strength declined significantly.

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While Baker’s physical decline isn’t as dramatic as that of Ben Roethlisberger or Peyton Manning later in their careers, Baker’s health outlook is still concerning.

So, can you rule out Baker going out in the first round? It’s possible, but history suggests caution.

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Consider Tyler Shough, who entered the draft process as a projected Day 3 pick before moving into second-round consideration and even generating some first-round buzz. Like Baker, Shaugh has dealt with significant injuries but still possesses clear passing talent.

Judging from the current situation, Baker is likely not to enter the first round.

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But with two to three weeks left, will that change? Could Baker be a dark horse on Day 1 or Day 2?

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