Bitcoin According to checkonchain, the difficulty regression model is being closely tracked.
The model estimates the overall maintenance production costs of the network. This model treats mining difficulty as a refined measure of mining price, as it incorporates all major operating variables into one number. This provides an industry-wide estimate of the average cost of producing one Bitcoin without making detailed assumptions about hardware, energy costs, or logistics.
The model is currently priced at nearly $92,300, roughly in line with the Bitcoin spot price. When Bitcoin fell to around $80,000, it briefly fell, but has since recovered to the model’s valuation.
When trading above the model, prices tend to remain in bullish territory, while when trading below the model, prices tend to transition into bearish territory.
In April 2025, Bitcoin fell to around $76,000 and rebounded precisely at the model value at the time, becoming an important support level. It traded at about a 50% premium to that model for much of 2025, and hovered close to that model for much of 2024.
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin was trading at discounts of up to 50% to this model. Meanwhile, in earlier bull markets, multiples expanded even more, with Bitcoin’s price doubling at its peak in 2021 and quintupling in 2017.
As Bitcoin matures as an asset, premiums approaching these levels appear to be a thing of the past.
Overall, the model suggests that Bitcoin is currently priced close to its cost of production, which could be interpreted as fair value territory. Valuations based on Metcalfe’s Law also place Bitcoin’s fair value at nearly $90,000, reinforcing this assessment.
