After a successful wild card weekend, this early NFL betting column went 2-0 and continues a great season with a quick win that was well deserved.
The concept of early betting is to get ahead of the market, enter the kickoff with a bet slip with closing line value, rely on the efficiency of the NFL markets, and then hit the counter to claim our winnings. This was perfectly demonstrated last weekend, as we favored the 49ers vs. Eagles under 45 (-110) last Tuesday, closing at 44.5 (-120 under). When it came down to it, the Eagles’ offense didn’t score on its final drive. The market is accurate, the bets are in the right direction, and the lottery tickets are honored.
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Let’s apply the same technique to the divisional round and find some betting spots early in the week. We only have four games this weekend; remind yourself, these markets are already pretty sharp with so many 2025-26 numbers and injury reports already known. I don’t expect any big moves, but if the bets are a little bit ahead, the money will be in a good position on the pending bets. This week’s bets may even be similar to last week’s bets.
Odds are given by Bette MGM.
A week after the Bills defeated the NFL’s No. 1 rushing defense on the road, they will travel to Denver to face the Broncos’ No. 2 rushing defense. For a Buffalo team lacking wide receiver weapons, it’s a daunting matchup-based playoff schedule for the Bills. But it’s nothing Josh Allen and company can’t overcome.
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Allen’s dual-threat ability will really help play into Denver’s strengths as a pass rusher and run blocker. The Broncos’ Nik Bonitto leads the team with 14.0 sacks this season, and Jonathan Cooper has added 8.0 sacks, but Allen can step up, escape the pocket and avoid those edge rush sacks that can trap opposing offenses in late, low-down situations.
The Bills don’t have a clear-cut receiver, so Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain and his ability to track skill position players and remove them from game scripts are diminished. Instead, the Bills run two or even three sets of tight ends and use play action to cover up explosive plays. James Cook also leads the NFL with more than 1,600 yards rushing. No matter how good the Nuggets’ rush defense is, Cook is still a weapon.
Offensively, I don’t think the Broncos have the running game needed to break through Buffalo’s porous rush defense. Bonix is great because he limits his mistakes with few turnovers and very few sacks, but the Bills’ secondary and coverage are their strengths and would be a perfect fit for a Knicks-style offense.
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When pricing this game in the betting markets, it’s worth noting that the Bills open as road favorites. There are even some sportsbooks that priced the Bills as 1.5-point underdogs, but have seen line changes reprice the Bills as the projected winner. It was a repeat of the playoff game a year ago, when the Bills held a 31-7 advantage. While I’m expecting a close game, football reasons and early betting signals suggest Buffalo will be the team here.
For the second straight week, the Bills won.
Betting: Buffalo Bills ML (-110)
These sportsbooks are showing little hope for the 49ers. While my best bet here is the total, it’s worth noting that the Eagles were heavily invested in beating the 49ers last week. We saw the Eagles’ point differential go from -3 to -6 and then back to -5.5 at kickoff. While the 49ers will continue to win, I have always maintained that the week’s market movements are more important and important to successful sports betting than 60-minute game performance.
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Add in a wild-card round game against the 49ers, plus the Seahawks opening up next week with a 7.5-point lead, and it speaks volumes about how I feel about this game.
To me, that means hedging against the 49ers’ future ticket to winning the Super Bowl. I think the hedge is for gardeners rather than bettors, but on a case-by-case basis it should be explored, and market signals coupled with more injuries to the 49ers means now is the time to adjust. If you have a futures ticket in San Francisco, hedge it – if you find yourself with a future in Seattle, don’t do anything and continue to enjoy great value.
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The best bet for this single match has to be the bet. The 49ers lost TE George Kittle to a torn Achilles tendon, which was a huge blow to both their running game and passing game. Kittle is a great blocker and a dangerous weapon in the passing game, and combining the two is an integral part of San Francisco’s action game. After losing Kittle, we saw the 49ers deploy a skill set to generate explosiveness and score.
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On the other hand, the Seahawks offense led by Sam Darnold was prone to turnovers and ineffective in the second half of the season. Darnold leads the NFL with 20 turnovers (14 scores and six fumbles) and has thrown more turnovers than touchdowns since Week 11. While the 49ers defense also dealt with a ton of injuries, they limited the explosive offense with gun coverage and allowed the defense to get to the ball with both the run and the short pass attack.
Since this is the third confrontation between the two teams this season, the coaching staff has studied the video twice, and the players have also been prepared for the opponent’s trend. The advantage of repeated confrontations belongs to the lower team.
At the beginning of this week, the market also sent out signals of unclear direction. The opening price of 46.5 has dropped to 45.5, but similar to the Eagles and 49ers last week, I think there is another point to note and the closing price is likely to be around 44.5. Now start hitting the bases and try to move up front.
Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)
