Dogecoin broke through key resistance on the strongest trading volume in weeks, indicating that retail-driven momentum remains strong despite whale activity falling to multi-month lows.
news background
- Dogecoin’s latest move comes against a backdrop of modest but steady ETF participation.
- Two newly launched U.S. spot Dogecoin ETFs — Grayscale’s GDOG and Bitwise’s BWOW — recorded net inflows of $177,250 on December 3, bringing cumulative inflows since launch to $2.85 million, according to data from SoSoValue.
- While these flows are not explosive, they indicate that traditional investors are beginning to adopt regulated DOGE products as they begin to take hold. The broader memecoin market remains sluggish, but continued ETF demand is providing a small but significant boost as DOGE attempts to recapture key technical levels.
technical analysis
- The structure of DOGE has strengthened significantly, with the price confirming an ascending channel spanning three higher lows ($0.1469, $0.1488, and $0.1512). This pattern reflects ongoing accumulation, with volume expanding sharply on each uptick and contracting during pullbacks—exactly the behavior traders are looking for when distinguishing true trend shifts from noise.
- A break above $0.1505 marks the first clearing of resistance since late November. The expansion in trading volume on Tuesday – three times the daily average – bolstered the legitimacy of the move.
- Despite the decline in whale participation, the chart shows constructive momentum: upward sloping support, increasing magnitude on each breakout attempt, and a clean reaction to intraday declines.
- Importantly, DOGE maintains structural integrity above the support zone at $0.1470. This area now serves as a technical pivot for the continuation and defines the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
- On the longer time frame, the $0.138 area remains a major structural bottom, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-week moving average, levels that continue to attract long-term buyers.
- DOGE started with steady accumulation and then broke through the $0.1505 resistance level. The rally accelerated around 14:00 GMT, with trading volume surging to 874.7 million tokens. The price briefly fell back to $0.1513 before buyers regained control, confirming fresh support.
- Intraday action shows clear buying absorption on each of the higher lows, while the upper border of the channel guided a rebound towards the $0.1530 area. The session ended in the upper half of the day’s range, indicating that bulls remain in control.
• $0.1470 is now key support; holding it could preserve the breakout structure
• Near-term upside target is $0.1530, with the next resistance band at $0.1580-$0.1600
• Volume confirmation remains critical – a pullback below average could slow ongoing moves
• Retail-driven rally could accelerate quickly but also fade without institutional reinforcement
• A loss of $0.1470 could lead to a further pullback to $0.1430, with macro support at $0.138 in an extreme case
What suggestions do you have for technology facing DOGE?
- Market structure is showing early signs of a shift in momentum, supported by mixed but improving indicator signals. Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a new “buy” signal on Dogecoin’s weekly chart using the TD Sequential indicator, a tool designed to identify trend exhaustion and potential reversal points.
- Historically, consecutive TD “Buy” signals on DOGE precede significant weeks of rallies, making the emergence of new signals notable as the coin tests the upper limit of its ascending channel.
- However, not all indicators are identical. TradingView’s Bull Bear Power tool, which measures the balance between bullish and bearish pressure, issued a sell signal, indicating that sellers remained in influence during the intraday swing.
- In contrast, the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum through moving average convergence and divergence, turning bullish as the MACD line crosses its signal line is often interpreted as building upward momentum.
- In summary, the mixed indicator profile means DOGE is in the early stages of a potential trend shift, with bullish momentum emerging but not yet dominant.
- Traders are watching for confirmation of a sustained close above resistance and rising volume, both of which would validate the TD sequential signal and negate the short-term bearish reading.
