Author: Chen Xiuhao and Li Zili
BEIJING, March 23 (Reuters) – China on Monday urged all parties to the Middle East conflict, especially the United States and Israel, to halt military operations, warning that war would create a “vicious cycle” that analysts said could harm global economic growth and weaken demand for Chinese exports if it continues.
“The one who ties the bell must be the one who unties it,” Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy for the Middle East, said at a press conference after concluding a shuttle diplomatic tour to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
In a separate briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian warned that the use of force would only lead to a “vicious cycle” and that war should not begin.
“If hostilities continue to spread and intensify, the entire region will be plunged into chaos,” he said.
lessons from history
“The lessons of the past are not far from us,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday in response to Reuters seeking comment on last week’s anniversary of the Iraq war.
“The war 23 years ago brought profound suffering to the Iraqi people and had a serious impact on the Middle East,” the statement said.
Friday marked the 23rd anniversary of the Iraq War, in which U.S.-led forces invaded the country and toppled Saddam Hussein, in part by claiming his government possessed weapons of mass destruction.
Although the regime soon fell, Iraq fell into years of chaos and instability, a war estimated to have killed more than 100,000 people, cost the United States trillions of dollars and created a power vacuum that led to the rise of the Islamic State terror group.
“The Iran war 23 years later has caused serious losses to the Iranian people, and the spillover and spread of the conflict has also affected the entire region,” the foreign ministry said.
China’s exports
Trump on Saturday demanded Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping within 48 hours and threatened to destroy Iranian power plants.
Iran’s attack effectively shut down key waterways that carry one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, triggering the worst oil crisis since the 1970s.
Although Beijing did not elaborate on its concerns, a prolonged conflict could weigh on China’s export prospects.
Emerging markets – the main driver of China’s export growth – are particularly vulnerable due to limited oil reserves and sensitivity to rising energy costs.
“Weak growth in China’s emerging market trading partners may affect China’s exports to these countries in the coming quarters,” Goldman Sachs’ Shan Hui said in a report on near-term risks to the Chinese economy.
China is relatively better able to absorb higher oil prices because coal accounts for about 60% of its energy mix, has ample oil inventories, and imports through the Strait of Hormuz account for only about 5% of total energy consumption.
China’s chief economist said higher oil and gas prices could push up inflation and end producer price deflation.
The bank lowered its forecast for China’s second-quarter economic growth and raised its inflation forecast for 2026.
Asked whether China had pressured Iran to ensure the safe passage of Chinese ships and oil shipments through the strait, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin said Beijing remained in communication with all parties and was committed to easing tensions.
(Reporting by Xiuhao Chen and Liz Lee; Additional reporting by Samuel Shen; Additional writing by Jessie Pang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Arun Koyyur)
