Bitcoin As of Saturday morning, the index fell to $67,960, down 3.4% in the past 24 hours and retreating sharply from last week’s highs. The move fits a recurring script in recent months, with a weekend sell-off dragging prices toward the lower end of Saturday’s range.
Majors was hit hard again. Ethereum fell 4.4% to $1,974, solana fell 4% to $84.31, Dogecoin fell 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB fell 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.
The weekly pictures tell a more nuanced story, though. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% in seven days. Ethereum gained 2.6%. BNB rose 2.1%. Midweek gains absorbed the war shock and then some, although Friday’s pullback overshadowed the shine.
Meanwhile, the dollar posted its biggest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets digested rising energy costs, rising inflation and less room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This is an immediate headwind for Bitcoin and all other USD-denominated assets.
Aurelion CEO Björn Schmidtke said in an email to CoinDesk: “As tensions in the Middle East escalated last week, investors quickly turned to the safety of the U.S. dollar. As the market began to price in higher energy prices and reignited inflation concerns, a stronger U.S. dollar may delay the Fed’s interest rate cuts.”
On-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Glassnode data shows that 43% of the total Bitcoin market supply is currently at a loss. This is a significant overhang.
As Bitcoin recovers, those underwater holders have an incentive to sell on any rally to break even, creating ongoing resistance on the way up. This is one of the reasons why the $74,000 move failed to hold on Thursday. Every rally in higher prices creates a supply of people who have been waiting months to get out.
Stablecoin traffic is a highlight. Messari’s stablecoin net inflows increased by 415% in a week to $1.7 billion, and daily transfer volumes increased by nearly 10%. This could be dry powder waiting to be deployed, a sign that retail is not completely gone despite the fear that reigns in the market. The question is whether this capital will move to Bitcoin or wait for the price to fall.
War continues to dictate the pace. This week’s conflict between the United States and Iran shows no sign of resolution. Oil prices remain high. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. And the macro backdrop of a strong dollar, high inflation and delayed interest rate cuts is the worst possible combination for risk assets.
Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in the headlines, hitting $74,000 midweek, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another lap of that range.