Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $66,609 on Wednesday, giving up Tuesday’s gains after Trump, in a prime-time address to the nation, pledged to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks rather than provide the de-escalation the market had priced in.
All major coins in the top 10 fell. Ethereum fell 2.2% to $2,056, BNB fell 3.9% to $591, XRP fell 2.5% to $1.31, solana’s SOL fell 5.2%, and the weekly decline expanded to 13%.
The sell-off reversed a sharp rally in global stocks on Tuesday after Trump said the war could be over within weeks and that a deal with Tehran was not a prerequisite. Asian stocks rose 4%. S&P 500 futures rose sharply. The mood is the most optimistic since the conflict began five weeks ago.
Then the speech happened. For nearly 20 minutes, Trump did not outline any shift in Iran policy, provide no specific details on how the operation would proceed or hint at any path to a ceasefire.
He said the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping channel that has been effectively closed since mid-March, would reopen “naturally” after hostilities subside, but did not provide a timetable.
Brent crude oil prices rose 5% to above $106 a barrel. Asian stocks fell 2.1%. U.S. and European stock index futures fell more than 1.2%. The dollar strengthened. Treasury bonds fell on inflation concerns.
Cryptocurrency-specific images are now numbingly familiar. Bitcoin has spent five weeks swinging between roughly $60,000 and $73,000, selling off on every upgrade headline, bouncing off on every upgrade headline, and ending up roughly back where it started.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 8, which is in extreme fear territory, and has been hovering between 8 and 14 for the past month.
There is seasonal optimism. April has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, having been in the green in 10 out of 15 years, with average gains of 20.9%, and average losses of 8.8% in down years. Bitcoin also rebounded strongly last week from two-month uptrend support near $60,000 and is attempting to regain its 50-day moving average.
But seasonality does not hinder war. The pattern of the past five weeks—the hopes, the headlines, the reversals—showed no sign of breaking until the conflict itself emerged.
