Bitcoin is currently trading above $80,000 after recovering from Friday’s losses, but the rebound still looks more like a market testing resistance rather than a decisive move higher, according to CoinDesk market data.
Market observers say the market structure is more complex than just price.
Buyers have become more active on the back of Bitcoin’s rally and structural support from ETFs remains intact, but much of the recent activity has also been amplified by leveraged futures traders rather than pure spot demand. That leaves the recovery more vulnerable to macroeconomic disappointments, especially if inflation data looms.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux said in a note to CoinDesk that ETF demand and lower foreign exchange reserves are helping to establish a structural floor for BTC, while market indicators from Glassnode in its latest weekly report showed buyers becoming more active in spot and perpetual markets.
The problem is that the improvements are not clean. Momentum has subsided, leverage has increased, and funds are showing more short-side demand, suggesting traders are still hedging against the rebound rather than fully embracing it.
This leaves Bitcoin in an awkward middle ground. BTC has gained 13.4% in the past 30 days to hold above $81,000, but Friday’s reaction to a stronger-than-expected jobs report (strong data means the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates) suggests that the market remains very sensitive to the near-term buyer cost base. The overall numbers beat consensus, but BTC fell from around $82,000 to $79,743 before recovering over the weekend.
“The headlines were supposed to be a clean break above $80,700, but spot pulled back first,” Enflux wrote. “This level is real overhead, not just a chart mark.”
If risk appetite is returning, why isn’t Bitcoin breaking out more convincingly? Enflux points to an unusual point of comparison, arguing that a recovery in the luxury watch market could provide an early read into the behavior of wealthy investors.
Citing Morgan Stanley’s latest secondary watch data, the company noted that prices rose 1.9% in the first quarter, with prices rising for 25 of the 35 brands tracked as value retention and inventory turns improved. The broader conclusion is not that cryptocurrencies are flowing into the watch, but that wealthy buyers are buying back into risky assets whose pricing, scarcity and demand look easier to underwrite after a long-term correction.
This creates a troubling contrast for Bitcoin: If high-end risk appetite is thawing, Bitcoin still struggles to break decisively above key resistance levels, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has yet to become the clearest expression of a return to confidence.
Glassnode trading data suggests buyers are becoming more aggressive, but does not fully resolve the belief issue. One key metric is cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks whether traders are more aggressively buying or selling at market prices.
In short, it helps show who is driving the market. Glassnode said the spot CVD price, which reflects Bitcoin’s underlying market activity, rose 46.4% from $42.4 million to $62 million, indicating that buyers are increasingly willing to pay rather than wait for cheaper entry points.
Perpetual CVD (the same measure applied to cryptocurrency futures) jumped from $110 million to $410.3 million, indicating that leveraged traders also tend to be more bullish. This can accelerate gains, but is a less durable signal than spot demand because futures positions can quickly reverse if sentiment changes. Warning signs are equally important.
Market watchers say Bitcoin’s bottom is stronger than it was a month ago, but the next leg up may depend more on whether inflation data gives traders enough confidence to stop hedging the rally and start chasing it, rather than enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency itself.
