Bitcoin was trading around $68,780 on Tuesday, with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recording its strongest daily inflows in more than a month.
SoSoValue data shows that capital inflows totaled US$471 million on April 6, the largest inflow since February 25 and the sixth largest single-day inflow this year. That number is still down from peak traffic conditions in January, when multiple trading days saw more than $700 million traded.
These massive inflows come as Bitcoin continues to fall below $70,000, with weak spot demand and allocations from large holders limiting upside. ETFs are increasingly offsetting this pressure, becoming the primary source of marginal buying.
Macro signals provide limited direction. According to Polymarket data, the market expects a 98% chance of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with extremely low expectations for an interest rate cut or increase in the near future.
Bitcoin’s relationship with global monetary policy may be changing, with ETFs changing not only the scale of demand but also the timing of demand.
A recent report from Binance Research found that Bitcoin’s correlation with its global easing breadth index, which tracks 41 central banks, has turned sharply negative since 2024, the same year that U.S. spot ETFs were approved. Until then, Bitcoin tends to lag behind easing cycles. Now the relationship has been reversed, with the opposite effect nearly three times stronger.
This shift reflects who sets the marginal price. The retail industry used to react ex post to macroeconomics. ETF-driven institutional capital flows are more forward-looking and positioned ahead of expected policy initiatives.
“Bitcoin may have evolved from a macro ‘lag receiver’ to a ‘leading pricer,'” Binance Research wrote.
ETF inflows continue to absorb supply and anchor prices, which could explain the continued daily inflows.
If Binance Research’s recommendations hold true, Bitcoin will likely continue to trade as a forward-looking asset, pricing in line with central bank pivots ahead of traditional markets rather than reacting after the fact.
