Israel’s war against Hezbollah has been raging for a month, with invading Israeli forces gradually advancing into southern Lebanon, raising concerns about the fate of the region nearly two decades after Israel’s last occupation.
Since the war broke out last month, Israeli officials have said Israel intends to establish a “safe zone” within Lebanon.
Recently, Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military “will establish safe zones within Lebanon… and will maintain security control of the entire area up to the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border.”
What is happening on the ground and how far can Israel go?
– What is happening in southern Lebanon? –
The Israeli military had previously issued an unprecedented evacuation order for a large swath of the country’s south, where Iran-backed Hezbollah dominates.
Israeli military sources told AFP that four army divisions are currently deployed on the country’s northern border.
A Western military source in southern Lebanon said “the Israelis are advancing one axis at a time” and destroying border villages along the way.
Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told AFP that Israeli forces had captured the strategic town of Shyam, located on the eastern stretch of the shared border.
Hezbollah, which fired rockets at Israel last month to drag Lebanon into a Mideast war, has claimed it has been attacked repeatedly by Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli military said 10 soldiers were killed in fighting.
Western military sources said the Iranian-backed group was not halting the Israeli army’s advance “but instead seeking symbolic victories such as the destruction of Merkava tanks.”
David Wood, senior analyst for Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that as Israel moves deeper into Lebanon, “it is moving into a style of warfare that may actually be more suitable for Hezbollah, which is this guerrilla hit-and-run style of fighting”.
The Lebanese army announced a “redeployment and redeployment” of troops in parts of the south where Israel is advancing.
Lebanese military sources said Israeli soldiers had advanced as much as 10 kilometers (6 miles) in some places, and the Lebanese army, which has limited means, feared it would be targeted or surrounded.
Israeli artillery fire killed a Lebanese soldier on duty.
UN peacekeepers deployed in southern Lebanon were unable to stop the fighting, and three peacekeepers were also killed.
– What does Israel want? –
Katz said Israel would control southern Lebanon up to the Litani River and vowed that hundreds of thousands of southern Lebanese residents would not return until security in northern Israel was guaranteed.
Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menasa this week condemned the “clear intention to impose a new occupation of Lebanese territory”.
United Nations aid chief Tom Fletcher has warned that southern Lebanon could become another occupied territory in the Middle East.
But Eyal Zisser, a Lebanon expert at Tel Aviv University, warned against taking Katz’s statement at face value.
“He is good at making statements, but you have to first check whether his statements are fully consistent” with those of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he told AFP’s Jerusalem bureau.
Netanyahu ordered troops to “further expand” the so-called safe zone in southern Lebanon “to completely eliminate the threat of invasion (by Hezbollah militants) and to keep anti-tank missiles away from the border.”
Hezbollah has been “recruiting from southern towns” for decades, giving the group “local power” that Israel fears could be further exploited if southerners return, military analyst Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese army general, told AFP.
– New career? –
Israel has previously attempted to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
Following the first invasion in 1978, Israeli forces returned four years later and moved into Lebanon as far as Beirut, driving out Palestinian militiamen.
Hezbollah was created in response to the 1982 invasion.
Israel gradually withdrew its troops but retained an area of ​​20 kilometers deep in Lebanese territory until it withdrew in 2000 under continued pressure from Hezbollah.
Lebanese are increasingly worried about a similar situation happening again.
During the last war with Hezbollah, and even after the ceasefire in November 2024, Israeli forces damaged or destroyed large swaths of border villages and towns through strikes, controlled demolitions and the destruction of agricultural areas.
Zisser said it was technically feasible for Israel to maintain control of the area south of the Litani River.
“But you need to make a decision, you need to decide how to do it, (whether) to take over the entire territory and establish yourself there,” he said.
Wood also warned that the occupation would bring “new security threats” to Israel.
“If Israel deprives people of their right to return to their ancestral homeland, then armed resistance groups will emerge or will continue this struggle,” he said.
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