It’s officially March, which means it’s time to crown champions. Conference tournaments tip off this week, with all four power conferences beginning play on Wednesday. The championship games are spaced out for optimum viewing on Sunday. Not only are titles and automatic bids on the line, but so, too, are seed lines and at-large candidacies.
Here’s what we’re watching from the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East, plus a quick look at the Ivy, Summit and A-10 tournaments.
Advertisement
SEC Tournament: Will anyone upset South Carolina?
Top 4 seeds: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas, LSU
Dates: Wednesday-Sunday (title game at 3 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The SEC still runs through four-time reigning champion South Carolina. The Gamecocks (29-2, 15-1), led by Joyce Edwards, are out for their 10th tournament title in 12 years. Kentucky upset South Carolina in the 2022 final when Dre’una Edwards hit a game-winning 3-pointer to bring the seventh-seeded Wildcats back from down 15 points. Mississippi State won the 2019 tournament over 10th-seeded Arkansas, which upset No. 2 South Carolina in the quarterfinals.
Edwards is averaging 19.8 points per game, the most of any Gamecock since A’ja Wilson, while center Madina Okot put opponents on notice with a 5-for-5 showing from the perimeter against Alabama and Ole Miss a week ago. She won the battle with Kentucky’s Clara Strack in a 60-56 win on Sunday. It was the second-closest SEC game of the Gamecocks’ season.
Advertisement
Here is what else we’re watching from the SEC:
Which SEC team will move into the final NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed? The NCAA Tournament’s top three true seeds of UConn, UCLA and South Carolina are near-locks. The final No. 1 seed leans toward which of the elite SEC squads has a better showing. If either Texas (28-3, 13-3) or Vanderbilt (27-3, 13-3) reaches the tournament title game, it’s safe to pencil that team into the final top spot.
They traded spots in the two reveals by the NCAA women’s basketball selection committee. Vanderbilt led in the first reveal on Feb. 14, a surprise to many, but a selection based on their recent head-to-head result. Texas took it back on Sunday.
The Longhorns have a better resume with a better NET ranking (4 to 7), strength of schedule, wins above bubble and significant wins (Texas defeated UCLA and split with South Carolina). LSU (NET 5) could also slide up into the spot, though it trails both programs in wins above bubble and non-conference NET ranking.
Advertisement
Can Tennessee right the ship before the SEC Tournament? By any objective measure, no team wants to see that seven of their final 10 games are against opponents ranked top-20 in NET, with four of those in the top five. Even considering the headache that is an SEC conference schedule, that was brutal. But the Lady Vols (16-12, 8-8) were uncompetitive in some of those games, leading second-year head coach Kim Caldwell to publicly call out the “quit” in her team. They played better in the finale against Vanderbilt, including a competitive third quarter, which had plagued them. The SEC tournament is an opportunity to reset, re-focus and step into the NCAA Tournament on a better note.
Who will secure a top-16 seed? Five SEC teams made it into the committee’s second reveal, down from six in the first one last month. The top four of South Carolina (NET 3), Texas (4), Vanderbilt (7) and LSU (5) are locks. Who else will join them? Oklahoma (13), Kentucky (16) and Ole Miss (20) are contenders and will make or break their chances with a run through the tournament.
ACC Tournament: A Duke repeat, or another fresh champ?
Top 4 seeds: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State
Dates: Wednesday-Sunday (title game at 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
It took serious trial and tribulation, but Duke (21-8, 16-2) found its footing to turn around a 3-6 start into a nearly unblemished ACC regular season. At least until they lost two of three down the stretch. Bubble team Clemson upset Duke, 53-51, last week, and rival UNC won, 74-69, to split the series on Sunday. The Blue Devils eventually won the ACC regular season title outright when Louisville was upset by Notre Dame.
Advertisement
It’s poised to be a chaotic ACC Tournament. There could be a fifth different champion in as many years. Duke is the reigning champion, following wins by Notre Dame (2024), Virginia Tech (’23) and NC State (’22). NC State is the last repeat champion, winning from 2020-22. Louisville’s last tournament victory came in 2018.
Will bubble teams further cement their spots? Clemson (20-10, 11-7) and Virginia (19-10, 11-7) played late-season spoilers and further solidified their cases as NCAA Tournament teams when they upset Duke and Louisville, respectively. Virginia Tech (one-point winners over Virginia in the season finale) and Stanford (beat Clemson) are also in the bubble region. Any head-to-head matchups and deep runs beyond their tournament seeding will help secure bids.
Don’t forget Notre Dame and Hannah Hidalgo: The Fighting Irish (20-9, 12-6) lost too many pieces they couldn’t replace to compete amid the ACC’s best this year. They took conference losses to mid-tier programs Georgia Tech, Clemson, California and Virginia, as well as leaders Louisville and Duke.
Yet, they still have one of the best players in the country. Hidalgo remains the most dangerous guard in the conference, averaging 24.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 5.6 steals per game. Her steal with 14 seconds left secured an upset win over Louisville in the finale on Sunday. For Notre Dame, the question is, can Hidalgo handle the heavy minutes that will be required on short rest throughout the next month? She led the Fighting Irish in points, rebounds and assists in six of the last seven games.
Advertisement
Big Ten Tournament: Can anyone compete with UCLA?
Top 4 seeds: UCLA, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota
Dates: Wednesday through Sunday (title game at 2:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Bruins completed the conference’s first undefeated season since Maryland in 2015 by defeating nearly every opponent by double digits. They won by an average of 25.2 points per game, with the league’s best offense (83.7 ppg) and defense (58.5) that rarely wavered.
UCLA is solidly the No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and lost only one game this season, to Texas at the Players Era Championship in November. The program is set on reaching a second consecutive Final Four and winning its first NCAA championship. They’re the reigning champions following a win over rival USC in the Big Ten title game a year ago, which was both programs’ first season in the conference.
Can Michigan, Ohio State play spoiler? Michigan came the closest to upsetting UCLA in its 69-66 loss on Feb. 8. Ohio State is the only conference opponent to come within single digits, falling 82-75 on Dec. 28. Michigan wouldn’t see UCLA until the championship game, and would first have to get past Iowa. Ohio State, the fifth seed, can face UCLA in the semis. Each squad is in the committee’s recent top 16.
Advertisement
How dangerous is Iowa? Iowa could also pose a tough challenge with Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke in the post. The Hawkeyes made their Los Angeles trip immediately after losing senior Taylor McCabe to an ACL injury, and it took time to adjust without a veteran who played on both Final Four teams. She is a 40.7% career 3-point shooter, tied for the best in Iowa history. Iowa lost to both USC and UCLA on the trip. The three-game losing streak that included Minnesota marks their only conference losses of the year.
Can Minnesota maintain its new committee shine? The Gophers secured their signature wins over Iowa and Ohio State in February, all but forcing the women’s basketball committee to insert them into the top 16 over the weekend. Minnesota’s NET rank of eighth is the third-best of the Big Ten teams, sandwiched between Vanderbilt and Duke. The Gophers can heat up from the perimeter (35.1%, 31st), value the ball (12.9% turnover rate ranks second) and receive contributions throughout the starting lineup.
Big 12 Tournament: Can TCU go back-to-back?
Top 4 seeds: TCU, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Dates: Wednesday-Sunday (title game, 4 p.m., ESPN)
TCU (27-4, 15-3) emphatically defeated Baylor on Sunday to repeat as Big 12 regular season champions, becoming the first team in league history to win back-to-back titles within three seasons of finishing in last place. It’s also the first time the program has ever won back-to-back.
Advertisement
The Horned Frogs peaked around tournament time a year ago and feature one of the best players in the nation. Olivia Miles, a senior point guard projected as a WNBA lottery pick, has 11 career triple-doubles and five this season alone. It is their conference tournament title to lose; a championship here would also solidify a high ranking in the NCAA Tournament committee’s eyes. And if it breaks the right way to put them in the Fort Worth regional, the Horned Frogs might not leave their own beds until the Final Four.
Can Iowa State make a comeback? The Cyclones (22-8, 10-8) again came on strong in the non-conference before sputtering in Big 12 play. That doesn’t look as good as doing so in a more dominant conference such as the SEC or Big Ten. While injuries played a role, it’s imperative they put up a solid showing here if only to get back on track. Audi Crooks can drop 40 in a heartbeat, and Addy Brown is the key asset after her missed time hurt their season.
Keep an eye on Taliah Scott: Baylor (24-7, 13-5) started its season strong with a win over Duke in Paris, led by its star transfer guard. Scott is averaging 20.2 points per game, more than double her closest Baylor teammate (Darianna Littlepage-Buggs is averaging 10.7) and good for second in the conference, between Crooks and Miles. How she fares is how Baylor fares. The Bears are in difficult positions when she’s shooting worse than 27%.
Big East Tournament: After UConn, all eyes on Villanova
Top 4 seeds: UConn, Villanova, Seton Hall, Marquette
Dates: Friday-Monday (title game at 7 p.m. ET, Peacock)
UConn, after facing little resistance in the Big East, is the heavy favorite to win a 13th consecutive conference title. The Huskies last lost in 2013 to Notre Dame, and went on to win the first of four consecutive national championships. A run through the tournament would extend their winning streak to 50 games. They have won 67 consecutive Big East games.
Advertisement
There are always things to tighten up ahead of March; head coach Geno Auriemma quipped at halftime of a 85-49 win over St. John’s that his team had as many offensive rebounds as a dead person (zero). And a rematch with Villanova is looming. The Wildcats held the lead for 16 minutes and 10 seconds of the first half — the most amount of time the Huskies have trailed against any opponent this season — and went into the half without the lead. They went on to win 83-69 after defeating Villanova 99-50 a month prior.
Villanova is solidly in the NCAA Tournament field, ranked 34th in NET.
Can the Summitt, Ivy and A-10 conferences play bid-stealers?
Ivy: It’s poised to be another two-bid Ivy season if Ivy Madness breaks a certain way when play begins March 13 in Ithaca, New York. Princeton (23-3, 11-2) and Columbia (20-6, 11-2) are lining up for an Ivy championship title game meeting in two weeks, with the winner earning the automatic bid.
Advertisement
Columbia won both regular-season matchups, and if the Lions were to win the bid, Princeton’s at-large case is strong. The Tigers are 39th in NET with 3.15 non-conference Wins Above Bubble (WAB) that ranks fifth. If Princeton wins, the case for Columbia is murkier.
It would be Princeton’s fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth, and Columbia’s third.
Summit League: It’s unlikely either South Dakota State (NET 43) or North Dakota State (45) will earn their league an extra bid, so it will come down to the championship game in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, on Sunday. They split the season series, but South Dakota State (24-6, 14-2) also took a league loss to South Dakota in conference play. South Dakota State is one of the toughest mid-majors in March, while North Dakota State has never reached the tournament since joining the Division I level in 2005.
Atlantic-10: The A-10 tournament features three contenders that finished within one game of each other. Rhode Island (25-4, 16-2) is the No. 1 seed with a 47 NET ranking and a signature win over NC State. George Mason (21-8, 16-2) lost to Rhode Island, but split the season series with Richmond (25-6, 15-3). And the Spiders, led by senior WNBA prospect Maggie Doogan, dropped to the third seed with losses to Rhode Island in the conference opener, then back-to-back to George Mason and George Washington last month. Richmond (NET 37) could make an at-large case, with Rhode Island (47) a distant consideration.
