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Pakistan and Afghanistan have had an on-again, off-again diplomatic relationship. |Image credit: Illustration by Julia Wytrazek/Getty Images
Even as the United States and Iran escalate threats to each other, a simmering conflict between the two neighbors has just erupted: Afghanistan and Pakistan plunged into armed conflict on Friday, with the latter declaring a state of “open war” between the two countries. Tensions have been rising between the two sides for months, and experts fear the battle could be a turning point for the wider region.
Taliban provokes conflict
The fighting began when Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban “launched so-called retaliatory attacks on military installations in northwest Pakistan,” NBC News reported. As residents were forced to flee their homes, Pakistan struck back, announcing “attacks on military targets in the Afghan capital Kabul and in Kandahar and Paktia provinces.” The death toll has not been confirmed, but Pakistan said at least 70 people were killed, while Afghan officials reported that “dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed.”
In total, Pakistan bombed more than 20 locations in Afghanistan. The New York Times said that after the initial fighting, Pakistan “showed no willingness to stop the largest fighting in years.” Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said in a translated post on
“Time” magazine said that this “marks one of the most serious escalations in outright hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan since 2021 and may be the beginning of more violence.” The two countries have had an uneasy ceasefire since October 2025 and are historical allies. But the border dispute has stoked tensions. The Taliban do not consider the Durand Line, established by the British colony, to be the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but Pakistani officials do. The deterioration in relations also comes as the Taliban “get closer to India, and Pakistan and India have a dispute over the disputed region of Kashmir.”
“Further escalation of the situation could exacerbate instability.”
CNN stated that when Pakistan and Afghanistan were at war before, other countries usually intervened through diplomatic channels, “mediated by foreign governments such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.” Although fighting typically lasts only a few days, many fear “further escalation could exacerbate instability.” Meanwhile, tensions are rising in nearby Iran.
Experts believe that this war may be more serious. Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told CNN that “any retaliation by Afghans will take place in Pakistan’s urban centers.” “This is a source of chaos, and chaos is what terrorist networks seek to thrive.” But the Taliban’s approach to warfare could catch Pakistan off guard. The Taliban’s regular use of drones is “a poor man’s air force. The Afghan Taliban have drones, they have suicide bombers, they are very innovative.”
Reuters said Afghan retaliation could also “come in the form of attacks on border posts and more cross-border guerrilla attacks against security forces.” But “there is also a huge mismatch in military capabilities” between the two sides. The Taliban’s fighting strength is reported to be 172,000, “less than one-third of Pakistan’s personnel,” and Pakistan is known to possess nuclear weapons. The organization said the United Nations urged both sides to “continue to seek a diplomatic solution to any differences.”
