Huge red flags have been raised for Republicans in Texas.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten revealed Wednesday that Democratic turnout was higher than Republican turnout in the state’s primary, something that has not happened in more than two decades.
Enteng said he was “flabbergasted” by the turn of events.
As of Wednesday morning, 53% of ballots submitted in Texas came from registered Democrats, while Republicans accounted for the remaining 47%. Enten said this is a stark departure from the last midterm elections in 2022, when only 38% of votes cast at this stage were by Democrats.
Enten said the margin of votes “hasn’t been this close” since 2002. Since President Donald Trump unleashed utter chaos when he returned to office in January 2025, Democrats have significantly outperformed in off-year and special elections.
“We’ve seen a huge shift from where we were four years ago,” Enten continued. “Right now, more people in Texas are voting Democratic.”
Harry Enten says voters in Texas have changed dramatically this spring compared to 2022. /CNN
This trend could spell trouble not just for Republicans in Texas but nationwide.
Enten noted that in previous midterm elections — 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 — the party with higher primary turnout won control of the House of Representatives, with Republicans currently holding a slim majority.
“It’s still a close race, but given that Republican turnout far outnumbered Democrats in Texas, could more people actually vote Democratic in Texas?” Ntian said. “Again, like I said at the top, wow!”
The Texas game has drawn a lot of national attention this winter.
Lone Star voters are currently casting their ballots for governor, Senate seats and high-profile House races — such as for Rep. Tony Gonzales, a married Republican who was embroiled in a sex scandal involving a former aide who committed suicide in September.
Early voting begins on February 17 in Texas, with Election Day on Tuesday, March 3.
