LONDON (AP) — Russia is unable to launch an attack on NATO this year or next but plans to significantly increase its troop presence on NATO’s eastern flank depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official says.
Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, also told The Associated Press in an online briefing with reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no intention of ending his nearly four-year invasion of neighboring Ukraine and believes he can “outwit” the United States in negotiations on how to end the war.
Rosin said Russia’s plans include creating new military units and increasing the number of pre-war troops on its border with NATO by two to three times. But he said that would be largely influenced by the outcome of discussions between Moscow, Washington and Kiev on a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. That’s because Russia needs to keep a “significant portion” of its troops in occupied Ukraine and within Russia to prevent future Ukrainian actions, he said.
The intelligence chief said Moscow currently “does not have enough resources” to launch an attack on NATO, but the Kremlin is concerned about Europe rearming and being able to take military action against Russia in the coming years.
Meanwhile, Russian officials are buying time in negotiations with Washington and “there is absolutely no discussion of how to actually cooperate with the United States in a meaningful way,” Rosin said.
Estonia’s security assessment
Rosin spoke to reporters ahead of the release of Estonia’s annual security report on Tuesday. He said information about how the Kremlin viewed talks with the United States was based on intelligence gathered by Nato member Estonia from “internal Russian discussions.” He did not elaborate on how the information was obtained but said the discussions showed Russian officials believe Washington remains Moscow’s “main enemy.”
Russian officials have publicly insisted they want a negotiated deal but have shown little willingness to compromise and insist their demands must be met.
U.S.-brokered talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys in recent weeks have been described by officials on both sides as constructive and positive, but there have been no signs of any progress on key issues discussed.
Rosin said Putin “still believes in the back of his mind that he can actually achieve a military victory[in Ukraine]at some point.”
A White House official echoed the comments of Estonia’s intelligence chief and said President Donald Trump’s negotiators have made “tremendous progress” in talks to end the war. While prisoner exchanges have occurred from time to time since May, they singled out a recent agreement between the United States, Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi to free more than 300 prisoners.
The official said the agreement was evidence that efforts to end the war were making progress. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Washington has given Kyiv and Moscow a June deadline to reach reconciliation, a sign that Trump wants to accelerate momentum in those efforts. Trump has set several deadlines over the past year that have come and gone without apparent consequences.
Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and an adviser to Trump during his first term, said Trump and his officials are spinning a story that paints the U.S. president as a peacemaker and, therefore, are not interested in changing their assessment that Putin wants to end the war.
She told The Associated Press that the two leaders “need their version of events” and stick to their version of the truth — that Putin was the victor in Ukraine and Trump the dealmaker.
Deadlier Russian bombing
Russian planes dropped seven powerful glide bombs on Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region on Tuesday morning, killing an 11-year-old girl and her mother, according to regional chief Vadym Filashkin. He said the attack damaged 14 apartment buildings and injured 16 people, including a 7-year-old girl.
Russian drone strikes overnight wounded at least five people, including a toddler and two other children, elsewhere in Ukraine, regional authorities said.
Although Trump has repeatedly suggested that Putin wants peace, he has at times appeared frustrated by the Russian leader’s cool approach to negotiations.
Rossin said that from an intelligence perspective, he didn’t know why U.S. officials believed Putin wanted to end the war.
Hill, who served as a national intelligence official in previous U.S. administrations, said it was unclear what intelligence information Trump had obtained about Russia or whether he had read it.
He relies heavily on his chief negotiator, special envoy Steve Witkov, and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who, Hill said, may have a hard time believing that the damage the war will do to the Russian economy is a price Putin is willing to pay for Ukraine.
Referring to reports that Witkov attended a meeting with Putin without a State Department interpreter, she questioned whether Trump’s envoy understood what was said in the meeting and suggested that officials may be “selectively” looking for what they want to hear.
Upbeat reports filter to Putin
Rosin said Putin’s fixation on controlling all of Ukraine was “so embedded in his mind” that it took precedence over everything else, including the economy, and suggested the conflict would continue in some form for years.
He said Putin’s stance could only change if the situation in Russia or on the front lines became “catastrophic” and threatened his power. For now, the Kremlin leader still believes he can seize Ukraine and “outwit everyone,” Rosin said.
Estonia’s intelligence chief says one of the reasons Putin believes he can achieve a military victory in Ukraine is that he “definitely” got some incorrect information from officials.
However, Rosin said not all Russian officials believe they are winning the war in Ukraine.
The further down the food chain, he said, the more people understand “how bad the situation actually is on the ground,” while top officials are more optimistic because they’re getting more positive reports. Rosin cited examples where officials were told that Russian troops had captured Ukrainian settlements, but that was not the case.
Rosin said the reports reaching Putin’s desk are likely to be “much more optimistic” than the situation on the ground because Putin only wants to see success.
Hill said both Trump and Putin may have been told what they wanted to hear by those who wanted to please them.
___ White House correspondents Seung Min Kim in Washington and Illia Novikov in Kiev, Ukraine, contributed.
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