Trinidad Chambliss NFL Draft Prediction: Why Ole Miss’s star QB not expected to be the No. 1 pick originally appeared on The Sporting News. Click here to add Sports News as your go-to source.
One of the rising stars of this year’s college football season is Mississippi State quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He has passed for 644 yards and three touchdowns and scored an additional two scores on the ground during the Rebels’ College Football Playoff run. Chambliss posted a season-high 362 passing yards against Georgia’s No. 1 defense.
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That said, there are few players in the country playing better during the most important time of the year. That said, his NFL draft stock doesn’t appear to match production.
Here are the Ole Miss QB’s current career projections.
More 2026 College Football Playoff news:
Trinidad Chambliss Advantages
Chambliss has thrown for 3,660 yards, 21 touchdowns and three interceptions this season, ranking first in the SEC and sixth nationally.
One of Chambliss’ biggest strengths is his ability to use his feet to keep the game alive and keep looking forward. Mississippi State has allowed just 22 sacks this season, tied for 22nd in the country. Chambliss rushed for 520 yards and eight scores on the ground. He made some incredible improv plays against Georgia’s pass rush, like a last-second throw that looked exactly right:
He did it again in the fourth quarter, this time pitching to Lacy again:
He showed off his athleticism again, this time with an almost overhead shot that resulted in a dime collected by Chambliss down the left sideline:
But Chambliss can also take chances and make throws when needed, like on that crucial third-down conversion late in the game against Georgia:
Chambliss has since announced that he will return to the University of Mississippi next season if he is granted a sixth-season waiver by the NCAA.
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More:Lane Kiffin transfer portal losses: Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacey reject LSU
Trinidad Chambliss’ Weaknesses
Chambliss’ biggest weakness may be his lack of starting experience. He began his career at Ferris State University in 2021, where he redshirted. He didn’t become a full-time starter for the Bulldogs until the 2024 season, when he helped Ferris State defeat undefeated Valdosta State 49-14 to win the national championship. There simply aren’t that many quality movies about the Rebels star.
He begins the 2025 season at Mississippi State as Austin Simmons’ backup. But after Simmons was injured in Week 3 against Kentucky, Lane Kiffin turned to Chambliss, who remained the starter the rest of the season. He has started only 28 games in his career. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he’s also a little on the small side for an NFL quarterback.
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Bleacher Report’s Damian Parson wrote in December (before the Mississippi State playoffs) that Chambliss’ biggest areas of improvement as an NFL passer were:
-Chambliss struggled with coverage rotations and disguises after the snap. He can outwit the rusher by getting him into coverage. He won’t confirm a defender’s position before deciding whether to throw the ball. This leads to trade-worthy plays and tests for compromised windows. Zone defenders trick him into making dangerous passes by covering up their defensive duties.
– Ole Miss’s starting quarterback doesn’t have strong pre-snap recognition skills. He needs to do a protection check and call in to account for the simulated pressure look. Often, he’ll turn around and check the sideline staff’s cards to make pre-snap adjustments. This is not an NFL process and requires learning/adapting to the next level.
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Trinidad Chambliss NFL Mock Draft Projection
This may surprise some, but Chambliss is currently projected to be an undrafted free agent according to the NFL Mock Draft Database. NFL draft fever has him going in the sixth round. But if Chambliss continues to play like he has on these big college football stages, his stock will rise.
ESPN’s Pete Schraeger described Chambliss as a Day 3 prospect last week, but added that with the lack of quarterbacks in 2026, his strong showing in the CFP could continue to move him up draft boards. Mel Kiper ranked Chambliss as the sixth-best quarterback in the class of 2026 on Jan. 2, behind Oklahoma’s John Martel and Miami’s Carson Baker.
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More: Where is Trinidad Chambliss from? More on QB’s Michigan roots
Trinidad Chambliss NFL Player Comparison
Chambliss’ ability to improvise is similar to that of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield or Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray. At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he can add some size if needed. Chambliss’ Ferris State head coach Tony Anese told The Sporting News that the quarterback dropped from 170 pounds when he graduated high school to 203 pounds when he left.
“I would tell anyone [NFL] Scouts found out he had an NFL arm,” Chambliss’ high school head coach Eddie Ostipo told The Sporting News earlier this season, referencing his throw against LSU earlier this year.
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“I was like, ‘Oh, my God, that’s an unbelievable throw. That’s an NFL throw.'” So I think he certainly has that potential. I mean, obviously there’s a long time before that, and that’s going to be something that he’s focused on right now. But if he plays for the fourth-ranked team in the country and you’re a top Heisman candidate, I certainly think an NFL team would consider him. “
A lot about Chambliss’ draft stock may become clear when his waiver decision is made. Until then, if he continues to play like he has before, his status will surely improve.
More:How Trinidad Chambliss went from DII hangover to SEC breakout star
