Even now, after a year of being blindsided by Russia’s leader, Donald Trump has steadfastly refused to reflect badly on Vladimir Putin.
If there was a way to find a positive in Putin’s actions, the American president would find it. But this weekend, he outdid himself, hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Mr. Trump told the surprised guest that he had just spoken with Mr. Putin on the phone and that he had drawn one clear conclusion from their conversation: “Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed.”
Over the past year, Zelensky has worked hard to master the art of the poker face in meetings with the president of the United States. But for a moment, the Ukrainian struggled to control himself as an instinctive—albeit hollow—laughter escaped his lips.
Photo credit: White House/Reuters
Trump also claimed that Russian leaders were “working with Ukraine” to open the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. In March 2022, Russian forces captured the facility within days of a full-scale invasion. He made no mention of the increased deployment of armored and infantry vehicles in the occupied factories.
The U.S. president and his closest aides often echo Russian talking points, but never more explicitly than this time. In effect, Trump was claiming that Russia had always acted in Ukraine’s best interests—that the invasion was motivated more by grief than anger, and that it was sadly necessary for Russia to correct the course of a wayward, misguided child.
Zelenskiy quickly recovered and remembers expressing his deep gratitude to his owner in person and later online. While Trump’s characterization of Putin’s motivations once again betrayed his instincts, Ukraine and its European allies have made significant progress in pushing Washington onto a less destructive path — at least as far as Kyiv is concerned.
The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine remains occupied by Russian troops – Alexander Ermochenko/REUTERS
Trump’s fitful attempts to force through a peace deal with Ukraine and Russia now follow a clearly discernible pattern. The first was the opening match, in which Russia and the United States took essentially indistinguishable positions, while also pressuring Kiev to accept a humiliating surrender. Ukraine and its European allies then desperately tried to soften the plan, leading to a compromise that was formally rejected by Russia.
In the current iteration of this plotline, we’re on the cusp of act three: the compromise proposal. European leaders sounded optimistic and hoped they could persuade Washington to take a more realistic approach. Trump claimed that the framework of the agreement was “very close, even very close.” Mr Zelensky believes the plan is “90 per cent ready”.
Russian-controlled nuclear power plant on frontline of conflict
There are certainly reasons to cheer. Apparently, both sides have reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with the Western security guarantees it needs to prevent Russia from using the peace deal as cover to regroup and launch a more determined attack in the near future.
Details are still scarce. The plan envisions a strong Ukrainian army of more than 800,000 people, supported by European forces deployed inside and outside Ukraine, as well as a legally binding, congressionally approved commitment by the United States to ensure Ukraine’s security. How long that guarantee will last remains controversial. Mr. Trump proposed 15 years; Mr. Zelensky called for a maximum of 50.
However, the remaining “10%” is also the most problematic: the road to the top remains arduous. Mr Zelensky pointed to two outstanding issues. The first – and arguably less challenging – is the fate of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
Trump’s revised 20-point plan proposes that Ukraine, the United States and Russia jointly own the plant and share the proceeds. For Zelensky, the idea of partnering with Moscow to run Europe’s largest power station is both unacceptable and unworkable.
The Russian leader said Trump, a businessman, seemed confused by the stance, especially since the US president had expressed interest in setting up a cryptocurrency mining operation at the plant.
Trump told his guests that Putin was feeling “very generous” and offered to provide Ukraine with electricity from the plant at a “very low price.” Zelensky’s appeal is clearly limited, given how Russia uses cheap energy to exert influence over client states. Instead, he proposed joint ownership by the United States and Ukraine, with Washington free to decide how to use half of the energy produced by the plant (which is not currently operational). Diplomats believe it is possible to reach a compromise between Kiev and Washington on the issue.
Donald Trump says he had a ‘productive’ call with Vladimir Putin ahead of meeting him – MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN/POOL/EPA/Shutterstock
A more thorny issue is the fate of the territory in Donbas, where the Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine cede territory that Russia has failed to capture since its first invasion in 2014.
For Ukraine, giving up its so-called fortress belt would effectively mean ceding the highlands to Russia, leaving the undefendable lowlands in the west exposed. Zelensky has expressed a willingness to demilitarize Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donbas (subject to a referendum), but only if Russia withdraws a similar distance from its current front lines to create a large, internationally monitored buffer zone.
Russian missile and drone attacks leave people in Kiev without power – SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA/Shutterstock
Despite protests to the contrary, negotiations at Mar-a-Lago remain largely deadlocked. Finding a deal acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine remains an unsolved puzzle. Any proposal that provides Ukraine with a credible chance of survival through airtight security guarantees and an acceptable solution for Donbas will almost certainly be rejected by the Kremlin, which categorically rejects anything less than full control of the region or any Western military presence on Ukrainian soil.
As long as Trump maintains at least a loose alliance with Ukraine, Zelensky may not mind a stalemate. But the Ukrainian leader is now experienced enough to know how elusive the unrealistic American president is and where his true feelings lie.
After all, Putin received a warm welcome when he came to the United States in August, and Trump was waiting for him at the end of the red carpet in Alaska. When Zelensky arrived in Florida over the weekend, there was no red carpet and no welcome, not even from low-level officials. Ukrainian leaders will not ignore this difference and what it symbolizes about the fragility of U.S.-Ukraine relations.
