The intelligence services of two NATO countries suspect Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with a destructive cloud of orbital shrapnel, aiming to curb Western space superiority in helping Ukraine on the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press say so-called “area effect” weapons would attempt to swamp Starlink orbit with hundreds of thousands of high-density projectiles, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once but also potentially causing catastrophic collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt the weapon can be effective without causing uncontrollable chaos in space for companies and countries including Russia and its ally China, which rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for communications, defense and other vital needs.
Analysts said the impact, including risks to its own space systems, could prompt Moscow to abandon deploying or using the weapons.
“I don’t believe it. Like, I really don’t believe it,” said Victoria Samson, a space security expert at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based NGO’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “Frankly, I would be very surprised if they were going to do something like this.”
But Canadian military Space Force commander Brig.-Gen. General Christopher Horner said that given the United States’ previous accusations that Russia has also been developing indiscriminate nuclear and space-based weapons, the possibility of Russia carrying out such work cannot be ruled out.
“I can’t say I’ve ever understood this type of system. But it’s not implausible,” he said. “If reports about a nuclear weapons system are accurate and they are willing to develop that system and are willing to do that, then I wouldn’t be shocked that there is something close to that but equally destructive in their development wheelhouse.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to a message from The Associated Press seeking comment. Russia has previously called on the United Nations to work to prevent the deployment of weapons in orbit, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons.
Weapons will have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were presented to The Associated Press on the condition that the services involved had not been identified and the news organization could not independently verify the findings’ conclusions.
The U.S. Space Force did not respond to emailed questions. The French military’s space command said in a statement to The Associated Press that it could not comment on the findings, but said: “We can tell you that Russia has been increasing its irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space in recent years.”
The findings indicate that Russia in particular views Starlink as a serious threat. Thousands of low-orbit satellites are critical to Ukraine’s survival against a full-scale Russian invasion, now in its fourth year.
Starlink’s high-speed internet service is used by Ukrainian troops for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other tasks, and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have impacted communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could become legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had deployed a new land-based missile system, the S-500, capable of striking low-orbiting targets.
Intelligence findings say that unlike Russia’s 2021 test of a missile that destroyed a defunct Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon being developed will target multiple Starlinks simultaneously, with projectiles likely to be released by a formation of small satellites that have not yet been launched.
Canada’s Horner said it was difficult to see how you could gather a cloud of projectiles to attack only Starlink, and that the debris from such an attack could “get out of hand quickly.”
“You blew up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing so would “cover the entire orbital system and destroy every Starlink satellite and every other satellite in a similar system. I think that’s the incredibly disturbing part.”
The system may be experimental only
The findings, seen by The Associated Press, did not indicate when Russia would be capable of fielding such a system, nor did it detail whether the system had been tested or how advanced the research was believed to be.
The system is under active development and information about expected deployment times is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other relevant intelligence not seen by The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.
Such Russian research may be experimental, Samson said.
“I’m not going to let some scientists … build something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment where they think, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for this,'” she said.
Samson said the specter of an alleged new Russian threat could also be an attempt to provoke an international reaction.
“A lot of times the people pushing these ideas are doing so because they want the U.S. to build something similar, either … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or to use it to take a tougher stance against Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying that’s what’s happening,” Samson added. “But people have been known to take these crazy arguments and use them.”
Tiny particles may not be detected
Intelligence findings say the projectiles are so small — just a few millimeters in diameter — that they can evade detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan space objects, which could make it difficult to assign blame for any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, who specializes in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based security and policy think tank, said that if “the projectiles are untraceable, things get complicated” but “people will figure it out.”
“If a satellite starts flickering because of damage, I guess you could put two and two satellites together,” he said.
Exactly how much damage tiny particles can cause is unclear. In November, an impact suspected to have been caused by a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was intended to bring three astronauts back to Earth.
“Solar panels are likely to suffer the most damage because they are probably the most vulnerable part of the satellite,” Swope said. “However, this is enough to damage the satellite and possibly take it offline.”
‘Weapons of fear’ could spark chaos
Analysts say that after such an attack, projectiles and debris would fall back to Earth over time, possibly damaging other orbital systems during the fall.
Starlink’s orbit is approximately 550 kilometers (340 miles) above Earth. China’s Tiangong Space Station and the International Space Station both operate in lower orbits, “so both are at risk,” Swope said.
Swope said the chaos in space the weapon could create could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually using it.
“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, seeking some kind of deterrence or something,” he said.
Samson said the shortcomings of indiscriminate projectile weapons could lead Russia down this path.
“They’ve invested a lot of time, money and manpower into becoming a space power,” she said.
Samson said using the weapon “would also effectively cut off their space.” “I don’t know that they would be willing to give up that much.”
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.