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ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) It is one of the largest exploration and production companies in the world. Here’s why owning this top oil stock for the rest of the decade could do wonders for your stock portfolio.
ConocoPhillips operates out of Houston, Texas, located in the oil-rich southern United States. Although the company has assets in other parts of the world, most of the oil and natural gas it produces comes from basins in the lower 48 states, including the Delaware, Eagle Ford and Midland states. In addition, ConocoPhillips further expanded after acquiring Marathon Petroleum Company in late 2024.
There is plenty of shale in the southern United States, which is cheaper and faster than drilling deepwater wells. ConocoPhillips generated $7.3 billion in free cash flow in 2025, and management expects free cash flow to increase by $1 billion annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Then, free cash flow could surge another $4 billion in 2029, when a large project in Alaska begins producing first oil. All told, the entire company’s cash flow could double by the end of the decade.
In addition to investing in oil and gas projects, oil companies also like to return cash to shareholders. But as a pure-play exploration and production company, market prices for oil and natural gas greatly affect how much ConocoPhillips spends on dividends and stock repurchases.
Management’s cash flow forecast assumes an average WTI crude oil price of $70 per barrel. WTI is currently trading at $63, near its lows of the past five years. Oil prices would need to plummet and stay low for the company’s cash flow to be seriously jeopardized. On the other hand, if oil prices continue to move higher, there is room for upside.
