SHREVEPORT, La. (KTAL/KMSS) – Models continue to agree that we will see a winter storm in ArkLaTex this weekend. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the entire region. While we are almost certain to see some winter precipitation, there is some disagreement among models as to what kind of precipitation we will receive. Let’s take a look at the possible outcomes of ice and snow potential.
Winter weather hours: Rain will fall around ArkLaTex on Friday. During the day, cold air will begin to flow into the area. We may start to see some winter precipitation over the northern half of the region later in the day. This shift will spread southward Friday night as freezing rain will begin to fall across much of the area. At some point on Saturday, the cold front will become deep enough for the freezing rain to turn into sleet. The big question remains when this change will occur.
How much is it?
Snow/Sleet: Here are the latest most likely and worst-case scenarios in the model mix for snow/sleet accumulation. It continues to indicate that we will see 1 to 3 inches of accumulation in the northern half of the area, with 0.5 to 1 inch of accumulation further south. If the transition from ice to snow/sleet occurs earlier, rainfall amounts ranging from 6 to 8 inches are possible in Northeast Texas, Southwest AR, and Southeast Texas. Areas near and south of I-20 could see 1 to 5 inches of rain. The chance of seeing this much snow/sleet is slim, only 10%, but it is possible.
Freezing Rain: This remains the most concerning part of what could happen this weekend. Model mix shows we could see anywhere from ⅓ to ⅔” of freezing rain. (green numbers) If we take longer to transition to sleet and snow, ice accumulation will be in the range of 1 to over 1.5”. This would equal or exceed the rainfall during the 2000 Christmas ice storm. Again, there is only a 10% chance of seeing such a high amount.
Influence: When road temperatures drop below freezing, driving on all untreated roads becomes extremely dangerous. Bridges and overpasses may be affected first. Things will start to go downhill in the northern parts of the region on Friday afternoon. Power outages could also be an issue due to ice buildup on trees and power lines. If we see widespread power outages (worst case scenario), they could last for a while. Conditions likely won’t improve much Sunday and Monday as temperatures will struggle to return to freezing. Fortunately, we should climb into the 40s on Tuesday.
This is just a snapshot of the current model. Predicting winter weather is tricky. We may see some changes to the above in the coming days. stay tuned! !
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