Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s happening in the market:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, your daily digest of the top news from the U.S. and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US market, see CoinDesk’s Americas Crypto Diary.
With just two weeks left in the year, and with many counters in Hong Kong reduced to skeleton staff after the end of the Asian trading session on Friday as the Christmas holiday begins, the cryptocurrency market is shifting from momentum to scorekeeping. One of the grimmest year-end judgments comes from Polymarket, where traders currently see only a 2% chance of the Bitcoin ETF breaking last year’s inflow record in 2025.
The bet is based on a simple arithmetic problem. In 2024, Bitcoin ETF will have net inflows of $33.6B. According to data from SoSoValue, as of December 15th, US time, net inflows this year were close to $22.5B, leaving a gap of approximately $11B and only a few days of meaningful trading.
However, last week showed a return in ETF inflows despite price softening and altcoin underperformance, suggesting that while the $33.6B target may not be achieved, the structural role of ETFs in absorbing risk is still strengthening as the year ends.
Glassnode data shows that despite the price retreat from yesterday’s $94,000 and weak spot market conditions, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows returned to positive values, with net inflows rebounding to approximately $290 million a week after previous outflows.
Meanwhile, ETF trading volumes fell, indicating reduced speculative churn and increased allocation-driven positioning, Glassnode wrote. This pattern helps explain why Bitcoin has outperformed the CoinDesk 20, a broad index, with ETFs increasingly acting as stabilizing channels rather than vehicles purely chasing upside when risk comes from high-beta assets.
The $11B gap from last year’s record of $33.6B reflects a shift in the ETF story, not that it has stagnated.
Unlike 2024, a launch year driven by pent-up demand and one-time allocations, 2025 launches are driven by rotation, fee migration, and volatility-driven rebalancing.
The math may be set, but beating the benchmark before the end of the year isn’t that important. It’s about the use case: ETFs no longer amplify cryptocurrency prices as they did when launched in 2024.
Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer for the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than amplifying price movements. This is a sign of mature market infrastructure.
market trend
Bitcoin: Bitcoin has been consolidating over the past week after falling to near $94,000 before moving back into the $87,000 to $88,000 range while outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum: Ethereum has underperformed over the past week, slipping towards the $2,950 to $3,000 range, as selling pressure intensified across high-beta assets and the rotation favored Bitcoin.
Gold: Gold prices climbed above $4,300 after the New York Fed’s December Empire State manufacturing survey unexpectedly fell into contraction, and volatility in the U.S. manufacturing industry resurfaced, boosting safe-haven demand.
Nikkei 225 Index: Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on Tuesday, tracking losses on Wall Street as investors retreated from U.S. artificial intelligence trades, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.14% and the Topix down 1.05%.
Elsewhere in Cryptocurrency:
- Senate delays cryptocurrency market structure bill until next year (CoinDesk)
- The number of active Bitcoin addresses hits a one-year low, raising new concerns about demand for block space (The Block)