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Grok’s forecast for Bitcoin at $40,000 is 33% to 45% lower than most analysts’ bottom forecasts of $60,000 to $75,000.
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AI’s base case is $75,000 to $150,000, with the bull case reaching $200,000 to $300,000 by the end of 2026.
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In early February, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $60,000 before rebounding to around $67,000. Most analysts think the worst is over, but Gronk sees more downside ahead. Elon Musk AI predicts BTC prices will reach as low as $40,000 – a level that Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency: BTC) has not touched since early 2024.
A fall to $40,000 would mark Bitcoin’s 68% drop from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, putting it at the same level as the 2018 and 2022 crashes. These pullbacks followed exchange meltdowns, regulatory crackdowns, and general market panic, but none of those have occurred this cycle. So, what exactly would it take for Bitcoin to fall that far?
Grok’s Bitcoin predictions range from $40,000 in a secular bear market to $250,000 when institutional adoption accelerates. The base case is between $75,000 and $150,000, which would mean Bitcoin roughly doubles from current levels or recovers to the October 2025 highs.
What sets Grok apart from other AI models is the way it builds these predictions. The model pulls real-time data from X, tracking mood changes, viral trends, and crowd psychology. It also ran thousands of scenario simulations, weighing factors such as ETF flows, post-halving supply dynamics and Federal Reserve policy. This approach allows Grok to react more quickly to momentum changes, but can also heighten fear during sell-offs.
For the development of the bull market, Grok pointed to three drivers: monthly ETF inflows remaining above $3 billion, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at least twice, and the continued use of corporate finance in line with Strategy’s playbook. A major catalyst – such as G7 countries adding Bitcoin to their reserves – would push this process forward.
For the $40,000 bear case, Grok drew on X Sentiment Data, a technical chart circulating on the platform that projects $40,000 to be Bitcoin’s 2026 cycle bottom. The model treats this as a tail risk rather than a base expectation, but it doesn’t ignore it. With ETF outflows accelerating, the Fed remaining hawkish through 2026, and contagion hitting, Grok thinks $40,000 is possible.
Most analysts’ estimates for Bitcoin’s bottom center on $60,000 to $75,000. University of Sussex finance professor Carol Alexander expects Bitcoin to trade in a “high volatility range” of $75,000 to $150,000, with a center of gravity around $110,000. Standard Chartered has cut its target twice since December 2025 and now warns the bank will hit a bottom of $50,000 before recovering to $100,000 by the end of the year.
Other AI models are closer to consensus. ChatGPT expects Bitcoin’s bottom range to be $40,000 to $75,000 if the long-term crypto winter persists, but its base case will be weighted between $75,000 and $110,000. Crowder expects prices to reach $70,000 to $120,000 in a mild scenario, while only under severe macro stress will the bear market bottom, at around $30,000 to $50,000.
Grok’s $40,000 floor is 33% to 45% lower than most forecasts, making it the most pessimistic forecast among major forecasters.
It would take multiple negative catalysts to hit $40,000. Here are four key factors that could cause BTC to drop to $40,000.
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The Fed’s hawkish policy continues until 2026: If a rate cut never materializes and inflation remains stubborn, risk assets will remain under pressure. Standard Chartered sees hawkish Fed policy as the main headwind, noting that markets don’t expect policy easing until Kevin Warsh convenes his first FOMC meeting as Fed chairman in mid-June at the earliest.
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Major infectious events: Another exchange failure, stablecoin decoupling, or protocol collapse could eliminate market confidence. Unlike the crash of 2022, this cycle did not see the collapse of major platforms – which Standard Chartered noted was a sign of market maturity. But systemic risks will never completely disappear.
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ETF outflows accelerate: Since October 2025, the Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows of approximately 100,000 BTC, with an average entry price of approximately $90,000, leaving many investors in limbo. If institutions exit en masse, selling pressure could overwhelm the entire market.
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Macro or geopolitical black swan: An escalation of war, a sovereign debt crisis or a severe recession can push markets into risk-off mode. Amid the recent turmoil, gold has surged above $5,000 an ounce on central bank demand, while Bitcoin has lagged behind. In the comprehensive search for safety, cryptocurrencies often lag behind traditional safe havens.
To hit $40,000, all of these forces would need to be compounded—not just one or two—and that combination is possible, but unlikely.
Grok’s $40,000 floor would require Bitcoin price to break through every major support level from the previous cycle, as well as a breakdown in institutional belief that has yet to materialize despite months of selling pressure. That’s why this seems unlikely.
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Institutional infrastructure is stronger than ever: Despite recent outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs still hold about $80 billion in assets, and corporate finance has also accumulated large positions. Strategy alone holds 714,644 Bitcoins on its balance sheet, worth approximately $49 billion at current prices—a corporate accumulation that provides a bottom line that won’t exist in 2018 or even 2022.
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Historical price structures argue against this view: Analysts view Bitcoin’s 2021 peak of $69,000 as a key support level, as previous resistance often becomes future support. Below that level, the 200-week moving average around $58,000 marks cycle bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Grok’s $40,000 target would see a breakout of both levels, but that doesn’t seem realistic yet.
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Social sentiment data can be misleading: Fear-driven conversations often exaggerate the pessimism at market bottoms. Grok’s emphasis on X sentiment may capture the panic of the crowd rather than the underlying value. Real-world factors such as ETF balances, corporate coffers, and institutional demand suggest Bitcoin is now better protected than in previous cycles.
Grok’s $40,000 Bitcoin price prediction reads more like a stress test than a serious prediction. The model assigns a higher probability to the $75,000 to $150,000 range, with most analysts considering $60,000 to $75,000 a more realistic lower limit.
Bitcoin price is at $68,000, about 70% higher than Grok’s bear market forecast. Reaching this level would require a failure of all major support levels – the 2021 high of $69,000 and the 200-week moving average of $58,000 – which has not happened in any previous cycle without a major platform collapse or systemic crisis.
Bitcoin is more likely to consolidate within its current range until macro conditions become clearer. A Fed rate cut and stabilizing ETF flows will reopen the path to $100,000. Without them, $50,000 to $60,000 would be the downside to watch, rather than $40,000.
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