Bitcoin rose to $74,000, shrugging off further buying pressure.
The largest cryptocurrency fell back to $70,987 during the Asian session on Friday, down 2.2% in the past 24 hours, after a surge on Thursday that took it to its highest level since early February. The five-day gain from Saturday’s war-induced low of nearly $64,000 to Thursday’s peak of $74,000 was about 15%, but the pullback since then has given back about a third of the gains.
Chart watchers such as FxPro Chief Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical hurdles that tend to attract sellers during bear market rallies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to determine where a rally is likely to stop. The idea is that after a sharp decline, prices tend to retrace a predictable percentage of the decline before resuming trend. The 61.8% level is the most interesting because it represents a convincing enough recovery that the recovery has recouped roughly two-thirds of its losses, but historically, bear market rallies tend to die out.
Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average is simply the average closing price over the past 50 days. It acts as a moving resistance line in a downtrend because it represents the average breakeven price for recent buyers, thus incentivizing them to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin hit both simultaneously, making $74,000 a technically crowded level.
“The bulls still have to convince the market that the bear market is over,” Kupzikovich noted, adding that the magnitude of the move was driven by a squeeze by bears who “set their stops too close to the market price.”
Bitunix analysts provided a similar interpretation of the microstructure. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidation, while the long leverage liquidation clustered around $70,000. The secondary liquidity pool is close to $64,000. This creates a clear range for next moves, with both the bottom and top visible on the liquidation heat map.
Weekly data for the major majors still looks strong. Bitcoin is up 5.4% in 7 days. Ethereum rose 2.7% to $2,080. BNB rose 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. Lagging behind were Dogecoin, down 3.7% for the week, and XRP, which was essentially flat, down 0.2%.
However, the macro picture heading into the weekend was confusing.
Asia’s benchmark stock index has fallen 6.4% since the outbreak of the Iran war, with MSCI’s regional index heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on track for its best week since November 2024. Oil prices posted their biggest weekly gain since 2022. These are not the usual conditions that sustain a cryptocurrency rally.
Friday brought some temporary relief. Asian shares erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude prices fell on reports that the United States is weighing options to address soaring energy costs.
But the war is not over yet. The Senate failed to stop Trump from continuing military action against Iran, leaving the cost of the conflict and energy disruptions as unresolved variables. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the operation could last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted.
$70,000 has been resistance for a month and is now the first test of support. Holding it indicates the breakout is real. Losing it would bring the $64,000 base price back into play.