Occasional waves exceeding 20 feet are possible in eastern Lake Erie during high wind and storm warnings in effect Monday.
As of 9:20 a.m. Sunday, Dec. 28, the National Weather Service’s ocean forecast for waters beyond 5 nautical miles of the coast includes a wind warning from late Dec. 28 through the morning of Dec. 29 and a storm warning from the morning to the evening of Dec. 29.
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For the waters between the shores of Lake Geneva, Ohio, and Buffalo, New York, swells in the teens are not uncommon as late as Wednesday.
Here’s what to expect, according to the ocean forecast.
Lake Erie Marine Forecast
The weather service predicts southeasterly winds of 5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet on December 28. The meteorological department predicts that the southerly wind will increase to 15 to 20 knots at night, then turn to the southwest, and will increase to 35 knots after midnight.
One section is approximately 1.15 miles per hour. According to the weather service’s definition, high winds are winds between 39 and 54 miles per hour.
Waves from 1 foot to 3 feet will increase to 9 feet to 12 feet, sometimes up to 15 feet.
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On December 29, a 50-knot storm coming from the southwest will turn into a 45-knot westerly wind. Waves of 12 feet to 16 feet may reach 16 feet to 21 feet, and may reach close to 27 feet at times. There may be snow on the lake.
During the night of December 29, winds from the west will weaken to about 40 knots, driving waves of 14 to 19 feet, sometimes reaching 24 feet, then weakening to 11-15 feet.
On December 30, west winds reaching 35 knots will bring waves of 10 to 13 feet, reaching 16 feet at times before fading to 7-11 feet.
On New Year’s Eve, the west wind dropped from 30 knots to 15-20 knots. Wave heights ranged from 7 feet to 11 feet, reaching a maximum of 14 feet before receding.
On New Year’s Day, the wind was 15 to 20 knots, the wind was 15 to 20 knots, and the waves were 3 feet to 6 feet.
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Lakeshore Flood Warning for Chautauqua County, NY
The Weather Service in Buffalo has issued multiple warnings for Western New York, including a Lakeshore Flood Warning for Chautauqua County on December 29 from 5 a.m. to 10 p.m.
The warning states that starting on December 29, water levels in Lake Erie and the upper reaches of the Niagara River will rise rapidly, and severe flooding will occur along the lakeshore. Erie and Niagara counties were also issued warnings.
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“Flooding is possible along Route 5 in Hamburg, Buffalo Harbor, Canalside, Dunkirk Harbor, and other flood-prone locations,” the weather service warned. “Along the upper Niagara River, flooding is possible affecting Grand Island and Cayuga Island.”
Chautauqua County is also on a flood watch on December 28 due to excessive rainfall; a wind warning is in effect from 4 a.m. on December 29 to 1 a.m. on December 30; and a winter storm warning is in effect from 1 p.m. on December 29 to 1 a.m. on Friday, January 2. Snowfall could reach 1 to 2 feet, and the situation is complicated by wind gusts up to 65 mph.
Learn about the weather in the Erie area
Visit goerie.com/weather for the latest AccuWeather forecast details and radar imagery for your zip code. Download the GoErie app for iOS or Android for mobile-friendly forecasts. Sign up to get weather alerts via text message based on your interests or location.
This article originally appeared in the Erie Times News: High winds, storms expected in Lake Erie with waves reaching 20 feet or more this week