GENEVA (AP) — Iran and the United States prepare to hold nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, talks seen as a last chance for diplomacy as the United States has massed a fleet of aircraft and warships to the Middle East in an effort to force Tehran into a deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump wants a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, seeing an opportunity at a time when Iran is struggling at home amid growing dissent following nationwide protests last month. Iran, meanwhile, insists it wants to continue enriching uranium, even though its program is in ruins after Trump ordered attacks on three of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities in June.
Iran stated that if the United States launched an attack, all U.S. military bases in the Middle East would be considered legal targets and tens of thousands of U.S. service members would be at risk. After a brutal 12-day war last year, Iran also threatened to attack Israel, which means that another regional war may break out in the Middle East.
“No one will win – it will be a devastating war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today before flying to Geneva on Wednesday.
“Because the U.S. bases are scattered in different places across the region, unfortunately, maybe the entire region will be involved, so it’s a very scary situation.”
The Geneva talks will be the third since the June War
Araghchi will once again sit across from Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump who serves as the president’s special envoy to the Middle East. The two held several rounds of talks last year, but the talks collapsed after Israel launched war against Iran in June. These latest talks are once again mediated by Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula that has long been an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
Araghchi met with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Busaidi after arriving in Geneva on Wednesday evening. A report by the state-run Oman News Agency said the men “examined the views and proposals that the Iranian side will put forward to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program in accordance with the guiding principles agreed in the previous round of negotiations.”
In this round of talks that followed the June war, Trump pushed for a complete halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities and to address Tehran’s ballistic missile program and its support for regional armed forces. Iran insists the talks must focus solely on nuclear issues.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that Iran “has been working hard to rebuild” various parts of its nuclear program. Tehran is not currently enriching uranium, he said, “but they are working to get to where they can eventually be.”
Iran says it has not enriched uranium since June, but it has blocked International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from visiting sites bombed by the United States. Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press also showed activity at two of the sites, suggesting Iran is trying to assess and possibly recycle materials there.
The West and the International Atomic Energy Agency say Iran had a nuclear weapons program before 2003. Before the June attack, Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity – just one step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Iran has not restarted its weapons program but “has engaged in activities that would better position it to produce a nuclear device should it choose to do so.” Although Iranian officials insist that their program is peaceful, they have threatened to pursue the bomb in recent years.
“The principle is very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Vice President Vance told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.
Vance said Trump is “sending these negotiators to try to resolve this issue” and “hopes to resolve this diplomatically.”
“But, of course, the president has other options,” Vance added.
Threats of military action spark war fears
If negotiations fail, there will be uncertainty about the timing of any possible attack.
If the purpose of potential military action is to force Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it is unclear whether limited strikes will be effective. If the goal is to overthrow Iran’s leader, the United States may take larger, longer-term military action. There is no public indication that they are planning for what comes next, including possible chaos in Iran.
There is also uncertainty about the impact of any military action on the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf or against Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days, partly due to these concerns, with benchmark Brent crude currently around $70 a barrel. Iran said during the last round of talks that it was temporarily halting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of oil trade passes.
Satellite photos taken by Planet Labs PBC on Tuesday and Wednesday and analyzed by The Associated Press showed that U.S. ships that normally dock in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, were at sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to U.S. Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran attacked Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly dispersed its ships at sea to guard against potential attacks.
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Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Melanie Lidman reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press writer Will Weissert in Washington contributed to this report.