Everything is bigger in Texas — except UFC Houston. But the event’s top middleweights, Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, will still be heading to the Toyota Center to compete on Saturday, February 21st.
New UFC Paramount viewers will be introduced to Strickland for the first time, a former middleweight champion who is likely to turn heads every time he takes the microphone. But Strickland’s biggest concern this week is the man known as “Shaggy.” It’s been exactly one year since Strickland lost his title rematch against then-champion Drikus du Plessis. In a rebounding effort, Strickland will have to hold off strong contenders and snap Hernandez’s eight-game winning streak. This could be the former champion’s last chance and a potential springboard for Hernandez to stardom and a title shot.
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In addition to the main event, UFC Houston may bring some other fame. However, in most cases, this is a one-shot card.
👑 UFC Houston Lineup Crown Grade: C- 👑
Betting Odds Pass Bette MGM.
Anthony Hernandez is the real deal.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
185 pounds: Sean Strickland (+225) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-285)
A lot of questions were asked about Strickland after his final appearance in the Octagon. Clearly, the former champion needed to make some changes, and hopefully he did that during an unpredictable but on-brand layoff.
One thing is guaranteed: Strickland will bring his patented, slow, defensive, hard-jabbing approach to the fight. Hernandez’s footwork isn’t inferior, but his technical prowess should be surpassed by Strickland. Ultimately, there’s no reason to think it matters – Hernandez is an absolute shark, dragging almost every opponent he comes into contact with into deep-water grapples.
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Despite being knocked down multiple times by the wacky Du Plessis, Strickland has historically shown a pretty serviceable takedown defense. The problem against Hernandez is that Strickland hasn’t faced such a ruthless wrestling force since his welterweight clash with Kamaru Usman in 2017. In pre-fight interviews, Strickland showed respect for Hernandez, praising him as the best wrestler in the division — high praise and throwing subtle shade at champion Khamzat Chimaev.
Long-term layoffs haven’t been an issue for Strickland in the past, and his cardio has always been his strength. Hernandez only makes him work harder to get out of trouble, preventing Strickland from getting away from too many offenses. This fight really looks like Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Lite, which means a sparkling performance from Hernandez.
Pick: Hernandez
170 pounds: Jeff Neal (-200) vs. Urosh Medic (+165)
File this under: “Oh…we’re doing that, huh?”
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Geoff Neal is a ranked welterweight boxer who regularly fights killers. Urosh Medici is an engine of chaos who fights like a building on fire. Somehow, the UFC saw this dynamic and said, “Yeah. Perfect.”
That’s what I’m here for. It was just unexpected.
Neal is the cleaner technician – a sharp left counter, composed footwork and enough patience to make reckless opponents self-destruct. The problem is that he occasionally gets into fights, like he’s waiting for a dinner reservation, not an argument. Against Medici, it’s risky. The Serbs did not like to deescalate the fighting. He bursts out of the gate, radiating heat and encouraging you to survive.
If Neal stays long and disciplined, this could look like a veteran calmly putting out a bushfire. But what if Medici cuts him early and turns it into a bar fight? Suddenly, the “why book this?” contest became very interesting.
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On the face of it, Neal’s experience and skill should be enough to hold him up. He’s been in more established fights and I’m not happy with his jaw being broken in a shocking knockout loss.
Choice: Neil
145 pounds: Dan Ige (+185) vs. Melquizael Costa (-225)
Dan Ige will have to change his Paramount-era “50K” moniker.
Ige is the definition of reliable, both inside and outside the Octagon – just ask Diego Lopez. He’s compact, powerful, durable and can hang in the pocket longer than most featherweights. The problem is consistency. He would have moments of brilliance and then spend a few minutes waiting for the perfect exchange.
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Costa, meanwhile, is the kind of aggressive technician the UFC likes to go fast and aggressive, and the guy has been outstanding in his past five wins. He emerged as an unexpected personal favorite in this campaign. Costa puts a lot of effort into mixing up the levels well, and doesn’t seem particularly interested in slow-paced combat. If he can keep Ige in reserve and force extended combos, he can build up rounds before Ige can really adapt. Overall, he will have the speed and pace advantage.
The difference here is experience. Ige was in the cage with the elite and knew how to adjust during a fight. Costa’s advantage is real, but it’s a major improvement in composure and stamina.
Ige needs to stay tight, apply pressure at the right moments and hit the ball harder. He could remind everyone why he’s still hanging around in the rankings. But for my money, Costa is moving and growing. His output will steal it and earn him a spot in the rankings.
Choice: Costa
Ante Delija still has hope of becoming a big name in the UFC heavyweight division.
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
265 pounds: Serghei Spivac (+125) vs. Ante Delija (-150)
I know this topic is beaten to death, but that’s because it’s so true. By 2026, it will be almost impossible to care about the heavyweight division anymore.
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Sergey Spivaz does his best once he gets to you – grabs, trips, chokes. It’s not pretty, but it works for the heavyweights. The concern is whether anyone can survive the opening exchange long enough to begin the ordeal.
Ante Delia brings real power and forward pressure – which is always alive and well at heavyweight. If he had persisted earlier, Spivaz might have run into problems. this duel should Not as sloppy as in recent weeks, but don’t let these boys off the hook. This is indeed asking a lot of.
As far as talent goes, there’s more to like about Delia than any dizzying silliness.
Choice: Delia
170 pounds: Jacob Smith (-300) vs. Josiah Harrell (+240)
11-0 for both sides? You just have to like an undefeated mirror matchup.
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While the numbers are interesting, Jacob Smith is a more mobile and clinical forward. He’s patient, sharp, and comfortable fighting from distance, and he’ll show Josiah Harrell who improves faster.
This fight may come down to who decides the tempo. Hopefully Smith can stay clean and technical and take control of the exchange. Things would become more unpredictable if Harrell closed the distance and forced scrambles, but I don’t believe he would be much better at that either.
Choice: Smith
185 pounds: Zachary Reese (+135) vs. Michelle Pereira (-160)
Michel Pereira’s career remains one of the strangest of the past decade. If he performs differently against Hernandez in Saturday’s main event in October 2024, then maybe he’ll headline the UFC Houston fight against Strickland. Instead, the man has struggled ever since that fateful, soul-robbing defeat.
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At his best, Pereira is an unpredictable performer. So much so that the recent addition of more discipline has arguably taken its toll on him. He’s a terrifying combination of athleticism and opportunistic fighting when he’s fighting on the inside. When he doesn’t…well, you’ll remember the backflip. But we love backflips. Can we do some more backflips?
Zachary Reese is long, dangerous and has real finishing upside, especially early on. But he can be hit. The experience gap between the two is huge, and Reese’s style would give Pereira room to break out, which is usually a poor long-term plan.
It does feel silly to bet on Pereira right now. He’s no longer reliable in any way, but this is definitely a do-or-die weekend and he could be facing a fourth straight loss.
Choice: Pereira
Puna looks pretty sharp at welterweight. (Photo: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)
Preliminary explanation
Punahle Soriano has turned a new page in the welterweight division. The Hawaiians are undefeated in their first three games and are a model of consistency. It was a surprising and much-needed turnaround after finishing his middleweight run with a 1-4 record in five fights. That being said, Ramiz Brahimaj poses a real threat to stop his momentum in what might be the most interesting and competitive fight of the first half of the card.
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Carlos Leal showed similar potential against Chidi Njokuani, but other than that, don’t expect to miss much heading into the main event at UFC Houston.
Quick selection:
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Carlos Lyle Miranda (-125) def. Chidi Njokuani (+105)
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Alibi Idiris (-135) def. Osborne Carol (+110)
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Alden Corea (-275) def. Louis Gruul(+225)
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Jocelyn Edwards (-300) def. Nora Conor (+240)
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Punahele Soriano (+110) def. Ramiz Brahimai (-135)
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Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-210) def. Philip Rowe (+170)
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Jordan Leavitt (+320) def. Yadir del Valle (-425)
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Kali Giudice (-800) def. Juliana Miller(+550)