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The main event for digital assets this week – the US Clarification Act price increase will be announced later today. The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, seems to treat this as a trivial matter.
The proposed bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. The latest draft, released on May 11, includes several key provisions, including a ban on charging interest on stablecoin balances and a $5 million fine for violations. It also adds the Treasury Department’s rulemaking authority alongside the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
There is still no ethics language preventing government officials from issuing tokens, although observers expect it may be introduced during the markup, when congressional committees will scrutinize, debate and revise the wording line by line.
Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, said: “As the framework is gradually adopted, Bitcoin’s role as a strategic allocation with unique diversification advantages in a balanced portfolio will only be strengthened.”
Not everyone is happy with the current wording.
More than 100 Substack amendments were filed ahead of Wednesday’s deadline, including one proposing to ban the Fed from opening master accounts for crypto companies.
“This could be problematic,” Noel Acheson, author of Cryptocurrency Now Macro, said in her latest report. She added that while progress was positive, “there could still be a lot of issues that arise tomorrow.”
She noted that the committee will need bipartisan support to ensure passage in the Senate. She warned that without it, the bill’s chances of passing this year (Polymarket’s is about 60 percent) could plummet.
Despite the high risk, Bitcoin’s implied or expected volatility indicators remain low, indicating more stable market conditions.
“Volatility expectations [in BTC] Across all forward ranges, short-dated options are trading near year-to-date lows (with implied volatility at a historically low 30%), according to Andrew Melville and Thahbib Rahman of Block Scholes. “Prior to the Senate Clarification Bill hike, there was also no significant event risk priced into Bitcoin or altcoin options.”
However, there are signs of stress in the market related to Coinbase (COIN). “[There] We do see an implied volatility premium included in the May 15 contract, suggesting traders are clearly pricing the bill to act as a catalyst for companies that stand to benefit from regulatory clarity, but the same cannot be said for BTC. ” they said.
Read more: For analysis of today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Today’s Cryptocurrency Market. For a complete list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
what is trend
today’s signal
Bitcoin is retracing from the confluence of the 200-day simple moving average and the upper limit of the ascending channel that defined the recovery from the February lows.
This is not just a routine pullback to resistance.
The current decline has also pierced the short-term upward (dashed) trendline from the April lows, suggesting that the latest leg of the recovery is over.
Taken together, these signals increase the risk of a momentum-driven sell-off entering the market, which could lead to a drop to $75,000 or lower. From a higher perspective, the 200-day EMA just above $82,000 is a key level to revive the bullish outlook.